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Crystal Holiday ball: wishes second for a half “normal” 2010 and 2011 2011 Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai Holiday wishes for a “normal” 2011 Electronic equipment revenues rose globally about 14% in 3Q’10 vs. 3Q’09 (Chart 1) based upon “almost complete” composite 3Q results of 70 major OEMs representing over 50% of the world’s sales. The ratio of inventories/sales held steady for OEMS, dropped for major EMS companies, rose slightly for semiconductor producers and jumped significantly for electronic component distributors (Chart 2). All tiers of the electronic food chain grew in 3Q’10/3Q’09 (Chart 3) with the possible exception of medical equipment (data still incomplete). Although third quarter growth was strong, signs of slowing are now pervasive—both due to normal seasonality and generally softer demand. Europe’s electronic equipment sales dipped in September (Chart 4) with reports of further softness through at least mid-November. Taiwan/China (Chart 5) peaked in September (normal seasonality) and is now headed into a post holiday slow season. 20101117 250 200 150 100 50 0 $ Billion Electronic Equipment Suppliers Composite of 70 Public Companies Revenue, Net Income & Inventory Preliminary 3Q'10 estimate based upon partial data Japanese electronics output remains weak and U.S. electronic equipment orders eased slightly in September (Chart 6). Not surprisingly world semiconductor shipment growth (Chart 7) is dropping quickly from its +60% peak in March 2010. Using the global PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) as a leading indicator, it would appear that the entire world electronics “food chain” will reach “zero 3/12 growth” again in early 2011 (Chart 8). Fortunately the global PMI rose again in October (Chart 9), suggesting that this year’s electronics post-holiday seasonal decline will be not too severe and the electronics expansion will resume by 2Q’11. After this winter’s slowdown we expect “normal” growth in 2011 (Chart 10). Happy Holidays! end markets Electronics equipment growth will outpace worldwide GDP by a factor of more than two-to-one over the next five +14% -50 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Revenue 134 138 143 150 128 134 126 135 120 123 124 136 126 132 137 155 148 156 154 173 159 164 166 182 170 178 183 202 187 199 208 231 210 222 220 213 184 194 202 228 211 219 229 Income 11 11 10 7 -1 -5 -12 -1 2 -12 -1 0 5 4 7 10 10 11 11 14 12 13 13 20 14 10 16 19 17 20 18 18 17 16 15 -5 8 12 15 21 17 20 24 Inventory 57 59 63 65 66 60 53 48 46 44 43 40 39 40 39 39 41 42 43 42 43 43 44 43 46 48 51 50 50 53 54 54 57 58 59 54 50 49 49 49 50 53 55 Computer 11, Internet 5, Storage 7, Communication 11, SEMI 13, Medical 6, Instruments 11, Military 6 Chart 1. Chart 2. years, while PWB growth will be even higher.—Henderson Ventures Worldwide enterprise IT spending is forecast to reach $2.5 trillion in 2011, a 3.1% increase from 2010 spending of $2.4 trillion.—Gartner Computer related: • Worldwide PC shipments grew 7.6% q/q in 3Q’10 to more than 88.3 million units.—Gartner • Apple’s iPad adoption rate is fastest ever, passing DVD players; current sales rate is about 4.5 million units per quarter.—Bernstein Research • Worldwide tablet sales are expected to grow from 19.5 million units in 2010 to 54.8 million units in 2011.—Gartner • Hard drive makers will see 4Q’10 shipments flat or drop sequentially on weak back-to-school demand • Hybrid hard-disk drive market is expected to reach 600 million units in 2016.—Objective Analysis Mobile communications: • Handset shipments reached 346.2 million in 3Q’10 and are on target to hit Inventory/Sales Ratio Large Component Distributors, Semiconductor, EMS & Quarterly Inventory/Sales ($) OEM Companies 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 24 – Global SMT & Packaging Southeast Asia – Winter 2010 www.globalsmtindia.in 20101117 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 CY 4 Component Distributor, 18 Semiconductor, 12 EMS and 69 OEM Company Composite Semiconductor EMS OEM Component Distrib Distr Chips EMS OEM
1.34 billion in 2010.—ABI Research • Worldwide smart phone unit sales and market share in the 2Q10, by operating system—Gartner • Mobile phone subscribers will reach 5.3 billion by the end of the year.— International Telecommunications Union Consumer electronics: • DSLR-like camera shipments will reach 4.5 million units in 2011. • Global e-book reader sales will reach 20-25 million units in 2011.—E Ink chairman • Pico and pocket projectors market grew from about 45,000 units in 3Q’09 to more than 100,000 units in 3Q’10.—Pacific Media Associates • Global LCD TV market is growing despite weakness in North America; LED-backlit set to take lead in 2011.— DisplaySearch • 3D TV market is expected to represent 3% of the overall TV shipment in 2010 with 6.2 million units sold. They will 20100829 Global "Electronic Foodchain" Growth 3Q'10 vs. 3Q'09 Electronic Equipment Military Business & Office Instruments & Controls Medical Communication Internet Computer Storage SEMI Equip www.globalsmtindia.in -0 0 3 14 12 20 21 13 Semiconductors (SIA) 26 Passive Components 16 Component Distrib 34 EMS-Large (w/o Foxconn) 21 EMS-Medium 28 ODM 30 PCB 13 PCB Process Equip 44 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 % Change US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions 30 become mainstream by 2014 with 90 million+ shipments.—DisplaySearch • Global connected television shipments are expected to grow to about 200 million units in 2015, with strongest growth in the North American market.—TrendForce • U.S. sales of Xbox 360 Kinect sensors and PlayStation 3 move motion controllers will surpass 4.5 million this holiday season.—IDC • Worldwide digital set-top box market will grow from 205 million in 2010 to 226 million in 2015.—ABI Research eMs, oDM & related assembly activity Central and Eastern European market is approximately US$85B and growing rapidly to $100B as contract manufacturers and component companies expand their presence—Technology Forecasters Artaflex was acquired by team of EMS industry veterans led by Paul Walker, the 76 Holiday wishes for a “normal” 2011 founder and former CEO of SMTC. Asetronics expanded its LED placement capacities with a new SMT line with SIPLACE D2 and SIPLACE D1 machines. Assembly House purchased a BGA install and rework (reballing) machine and Scienscope 3D x-ray inspection system. AU Optronics: • setting up a LCD module and system assembly plant in Russia with TPV Technology. • received a LCD-TV assembly order from Sony. AWS Group added package on package (PoP) assembly capabilities. Benchmark Electronics: • completed a full quality system inspection technique audit at its Thailand Facility for Class III medical device manufacturing capabilities. • spent MYR 50 million (EUR 11.5 million) to acquire land & equipment in Malaysia from Pentamaster. Borisch Manufacturing laid off 130 hourly European Computer, Electronic & Optical products Production 20101117 Chart 3. Chart 4. 20101111 800 600 400 200 Taiwan/China Electronic Equipment Producers Composite of 101 Manufacturers 0 NT$ (billions) 2009/2008 up 3% 1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 911 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CALENDAR YEAR Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China Index (2005=100), Seasonally Adjusted 130 120 110 100 90 80 1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 710 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Eurostat, C26 category, EU 27 countries 20101111 Chart 5. Chart 6. CALENDAR YEAR US Electronic Equipment Orders & Shipments Communications, Computer, Military, Instruments 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 $B (Monthly Orders - Seasonally Adjusted) 1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 710 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/ Shipments Orders CALENDAR YEAR Global SMT & Packaging Southeast Asia – Winter 2010 – 25
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