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What’s the future of the Indian electronics manufacturing industry? • Leapfrogging technologies. • Products “Made in India” for India. According to Keskar, the hot areas and top trends in the Indian electronics scenario is based on each one of the market segments. IT and office automation: Netbooks or smart books for Internet access. Telecom: This is the fastest growing segment with 3G and BWA infrastructure deployment. Also, the government’s initiative toward broadband penetration will drive growth in new applications like GPON. • Mobile phone: With 3G, demand for smartphones will be very high. • Consumer: LCD/LED TV will be driving growth of consumer segment. • Automotive: Products/applications development for hybrid vehicle or electric vehicle will be a large opportunity. • Industrial: Alternate energy, solar and LED lighting will be growth drivers. outlook for Indian semiconductor/ electronics industry for 2011 The global semiconductor industry has recovered after declining by around 9 percent in 2009 from 2008 levels and is growing in 2010. As per industry estimates, it can reach close to a level of the $300 billion mark in 2010. This would result in over 25 percent growth in 2010 from a year before—surely, a very robust bounce back. According to ST’s Sharma, the Indian semiconductor industry showed much more resilience. In 2009, it grew by around 15 percent as per ISA-F&S Sullivan report and is forecasted to grow by 20 percent in 2010. The resilience issupported by the fact that there is still a large discrepancy in local consumption levels as compared to world consumption levels. For example, electronics consumption levels in India are still in the range of around 3 percent of world’s consumption, whereas it has over 16 percent world’s population living here, which ensures that the local growth levels remain higher than world growth levels. “This demand is fuelled by fast growing applications in various domains such as wireless handsets, consumer goods including LCD/LED TVs, STBs, industrial applications such as energy efficient lighting, automotive, computers and peripherals, etc. Also, fast emerging new economies and rapidly rising consumption levels in countries such as China and Electronics consumption levels in India are still in the range of around 3 percent of world’s consumption, whereas it has over 16 percent world’s population. India have helped in the recovery of this segment from the downturn of last year,” says Sharma. However, Paliwal at NXP says that “the focus will be on more design and development of IC and embedded systems from specs to prototypes. We cannot anticipate much change in the manufacturing issues and also no major IC or solar fab will come up in near future. “Semiconductor manufacturing is still quite some years away. This is mainly due to the fact that infrastructure is not to a level that is required for semiconductor industry. We lack readily available skilled labor in this area. Competency in the TPE and failure analysis area is not that strong, which is required for any semiconductor manufacturing unit. In addition, the investment required is very high and it is difficult to compete with sites like Singapore and Taiwan.” ISA’s Shenoy notes that “the growth drivers for electronics manufacturing in India are wireless handsets, communications, IT and office automation, which together will account for almost three-fourths of both the semiconductor TAM and TM by 2011.” According to the ISA, the semiconductor products that are likely to drive revenues are: • Memory driven by intelligent consumer electronic appliances— the need for higher memory capacities in telecom infrastructure equipment and the usage of higher capacity add-on cards in imaging products; • ASSP (application specific standard products) driven by SoC (systemon-chip) solutions for handsets rapidly growing markets of LCD TVs and LCD monitors; and • Microprocessors driven by wireless handsets and telecom equipment. I was looking at a mailer from one of the industry consluting groups about an upcoming event. Some of the trends to be discussed include: • Netbooks will sell roughly 35 million units in 2010. How close to zero will tablet computers reduce this in 2011? What will happen in 2012? • What effect will new processors from Intel and AMD have on the PC market? • Is FTTC just one more attempt to strangle user demands for decent bandwidth? How long can the Internet backbone take the growth in traffic? • Where is the server and cloud computing going? Welcome to the 400-pound gorilla that doesn’t care what Microsoft or Intel think! • With the success of LED backlit TVs, are OLED TVs a dying breed? How many of these products will be actually manufactured in India? Will we see Indian giants along the lines of Huawei or ZTE? Will some high-end research activities get triggered off in India in 2011? We will be closely monitoring the trends and segments as the New Year unfolds. Looks like it will be an interesting 2011! Happy new year, everyone! Pradeep Chakraborty is publisher and author of Pradeep Chakraborty’s Blog, and Usha Prasad is co-author and associate, Pradeep Chakraborty’s Blog. 30 – Global SMT & Packaging Southeast Asia – Winter 2010 www.globalsmtindia.in
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