A spatial multi-risk hazard assessment and vulnerability study of ...

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Table 2-1: Classification of hazards in a gradual scale from purely natural to purely human induced (Skidmore, 2002). Natural Some Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Snow storms Lightning Windstorm Thunderstorm Tornado Cyclone Hurricane Asteroid impacts human influence Flood Dust storm Drought Mixed Natural / Human influence Landslides Erosion Desertification Coal fires Global warming Rising sea levels Coastal erosion Some natural influence Crop disease Insect infestation Forest fire Acid rain Ozone depletion Human Civil Strife Land mines Air-, land-, sea- and traffic accidents Oil spills Pollution For the purpose of keeping the questionnaire used in this study as simple as possible, hazards were classified as either natural or human induced. Natural hazards were then further divided into biological and physical hazards, and human-induced hazards into chemical and cultural hazards, as can be seen in Table 2-2. Table 2-2: Madibeng hazard classification Natural Hazards Human induced Hazards -Physical Hazards -Biological Hazards -Chemical Hazards -Cultural Hazards Floods, fire, hail,snow and wind storms Diseases (human and animal) Dangerous plants and animals Pollution of air, water, soil and food War, poverty, accidents and lifestyle choices including drinking and smoking 2-11
2.1.2 Hazard Assessment There are three methods of identifying natural and human induced hazards: • The first is by reviewing past occurrences of hazards and their impacts through historical records. • The second is to develop hazard scenarios with the help of scientific models that can predict a specific hazard scenario (Miller, 1999). • The auditing of historical records can provide insights into past experiences and impacts associated with hazardous events that occurred in the past. The identification of areas where there are high road accident rates is a good example of using historical data to identify high hazard areas for road users. Hazard scenario mapping involves the use of layers of scientific data in a GIS system and the use of scientific models to identify the location and magnitude of possible hazards. The assessment of fire prone areas is a good example, in that models of fuel loads and fire intensities of different vegetation types can be combined with spatial land cover information to create a fire hazard map (Bankoff et al., 2004). These are the two most scientific methods of hazard assessment, but because the perception of the local community regarding hazards in their environment can differ from the scientific interpretations, it is also important to get some input from the local community in the hazard identification process (RAVA 2002). 2.2 RISK For the purpose of this study, risk is defined as the possibility of suffering harm from a hazard that can cause injury, disease, economic loss or environmental damage. Risk can be expressed in terms of: • A probability: a mathematical statement about how likely it is that some event or effect will occur, or • Frequency: the expected number of events occurring in a unit time (Allen, 1992). 2-12
Page 1 and 2: A spatial multi-risk hazard assessm
Page 3 and 4: 4.2 VELD FIRE......................
Page 5 and 6: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1: Deaths
Page 7 and 8: LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Classific
Page 9 and 10: provides information to the Municip
Page 11 and 12: In modern times people have come to
Page 13 and 14: 1.1 PROBLEM DESCRIPTION It seems th
Page 15 and 16: whether for further research on haz
Page 17 and 18: • Demography Population data avai
Page 19: Chapter 2: HAZARDS, RISK AND VULNER
Page 23 and 24: • Externalities from choices by o
Page 25 and 26: It is also important to remember th
Page 27 and 28: • Risks to an individual in a sma
Page 29 and 30: 2.4 GEOGRAPHY IN HAZARD, RISK AND V
Page 31 and 32: It is possible to profile the geogr
Page 33 and 34: Unfortunately, because of the metho
Page 35 and 36: Epidemics The slope of an area has
Page 37 and 38: Human Induced/Environmental Homelan
Page 39 and 40: Chapter 4: NATURAL HAZARDS. Develop
Page 41 and 42: 4.1.1 Hazard Identification To iden
Page 43 and 44: Table 4-1 indicates settlements and
Page 45 and 46: Figure 4-2: Urban flood hazard scen
Page 47 and 48: • Dam Failure Scenarios Figure 4-
Page 49 and 50: Figure 4-5: Vaalkop and Rooikoppies
Page 51 and 52: • Klipvoor dam failure scenario.
Page 53 and 54: 4.2 VELD FIRE Periodic fires are na
Page 55 and 56: percent of local veld fires reporte
Page 57 and 58: Madibeng therefore has a relatively
Page 59 and 60: This report provides an account of
Page 61 and 62: Figure 4-9: Madibeng fuel categorie
Page 63 and 64: Figure 4-10: Fire hazard map for Ma
Page 65 and 66: However, there are areas around the
Page 67 and 68: Fire protection associations should
Page 69 and 70: dry land areas, because for them dr
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Drought can be defined in several d
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The annual average rainfall for Mad
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Figure 4-13: Percentage of clay con
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The drought risk assessment was the
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4.3.3 Vulnerability Assessment. Soc
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Figure 4-17 indicates that a large
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Improved remote sensing from satell
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Figure 4-19: Madibeng dolomite geol
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characterised by good housing, the
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Traditional land use practices that
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The unequal distribution of wealth
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Figure 5-2: Population 5-19 year ol
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Figure 5-3: Madibeng employment rat
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Figure 5-4: Poor households and env
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Figure 5-5: Percentage male populat
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5.1.2.1 Malnutrition and Starvation
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In arid regions, drought can leave
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5.1.3.1 Income level approach Incom
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esources. The quality and quantity
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Figure 5-7 shows the distribution o
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However, there are serious safety a
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The central and northern areas do n
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In South Africa only one percent of
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major economical setbacks that has
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5.2 HAZARDOUS MATERIALS As was disc
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The following hazardous locations a
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These are only industries identifie
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Figure 5-13: Necsa 5-116
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5.2.2 Hazmat Risk and Vulnerability
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The high concentration of mining ac
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Figure 5-16: Brits industrial area
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Figure 5-18: Necsa risk area
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Bapong-Skoolplaas Majakaneng Madiny
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Figure 5-20: Hazardous material tra
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5.2.3 Summary Although hazardous ma
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6.1 GIS FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN
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and risk assessments in place, it w
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It would not necessarily be the sol
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6.2.4 Geological Hazards Very littl
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6.3 SUMMARY GIS has the capability
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Blong, R., Murty, T., Papadopoulos,
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Greene, R.W., 2002: Confronting Cat
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RSA., 1998: Poverty and Inequality
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Zschau, J. and, Küppers, A.N., 200
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# Please indicate general location
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3 - 4 - 4. Dangerous: 3.4a a) Plant
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The following data will be needed i
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Filename: Madibeng_multiple_hazard9
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