market analysis final report v1.1 - ESA Space Weather Web Server

ESA SW Programme Study Market Analysis
Final Report
whether this should be a public or commercial service. Most interviewees preferred the
former option in order to put a stamp of reliability and authority on it.
Increasing numbers of European astronauts involved with the ISS also means Europe has an
obligation for their safety. No commercial benefit can be seen in this and it may not be right
to rely on US data alone to meet these obligations.
4.5 Communication and navigation
4.5.1 Overview
Users of satellite navigation, HF communication links and terrestrial mobile networks are all
linked by the fact that ionospheric scintillation effects can cause service degradation and
temporary loss. Although the economic impacts are not usually significant, the disruption can
be dangerous in the case of safety critical systems or just a nuisance in other cases. Mobile
phone networks are reported to experience increased dropout rates from 2% to 8-9% during
solar flare events.
Table 4-6 provides an overview of the types of affected parties and the number so end user
ultimately affected.
Affected parties Numbers affected End users affected
GPS operators • US DoD
>250 million
• Russian Glonass operators
• DGPS operators (2 companies)
• Galileo (2008 onwards)
• EGNOS (2002 onwards)
Mobile communication
network operators
>100 Billions
Airlines (HF comms) >100 N/a
Figure 4-6: Wider impacts of SW on communications and satnav users
4.5.2 Trends and drivers
The main trends applicable to this sector are the increasing reliance upon mobile
communication and satellite navigation. Cellular phone companies are already some of the
worlds largest companies by capitalisation and the race is on for global dominance with
mergers, acquisitions and alliances taking place continually. Forthcoming UMTS systems will
expand service capabilities and increase the role of mobile communications in the life of
every citizen.
As mentioned previously, satellite navigation applications are proliferating with millions of
users worldwide using GPS either standalone or as part of an embedded application. The
growth of satellite navigation applications is being driven by various factors:
• Falling cost of components;
• Mass manufacture of receivers;
• Bundling of navigation and communications equipment to create complete
‘infomobility’ applications;
• Forthcoming systems such as EGNOS and Galileo to widen the market and produce
safety critical services.
ESYS-ESYS-2000260-RPT-02
Issue 1.1
28 September 2001 30 ESYS