market analysis final report v1.1 - ESA Space Weather Web Server

ESA SW Programme Study Market Analysis
Final Report
4.5.3 Requirements for SW services
Although mobile communications represents one of the world's largest economic sectors, the
true impact of SW has yet to be proved. This means that it very difficult to obtain real
evidence of the impact of SW beyond proving the basic physical interactions. There is also a
limit to what mobile network operators can do in the light of a forecast or warning. Traffic
cannot be routed differently since this depends wholly on the position of the subscriber.
Hence while some network operators are showing interest in SW impacts, there is little
evidence yet that a clear requirement for a SW service exists.
Satellite navigation operators and large end users both need to ensure that the
measurements provided are reliable. However, the majority of users are not too concerned
with accuracy of the service and hence would not need to know what impact SW was having
on the service.
The real impact is where safety critical systems are concerned. Since this is mainly an issue
for the forthcoming Galileo system, it is difficult to assess what requirements exist. However,
it is assumed that the Galileo operator will be very interested in using SW information where
it would impact the ability to offer the certified or safety of life systems being considered.
Users of HF communications such as airlines certainly do have a requirement for SW
information. One interviewee in particular is looking to provide a basic SW forecast service to
pilots through their regular information service. This will be for information purposes only to
warn pilots if they can expect any interference with communications links.
A bigger future issue might be the number of non-personal communication systems that
utilise terrestrial mobile communications networks (GSM and UMTS). Some estimates by
Japanese industry state that future market penetration will be 310% of the current mobile
market. This figure is attributable to the number of machine applications in use such as meter
reading that would eventually outnumber personal use. Loss of service due to SW effects
would then have a service implication and possible legal and financial liabilities.
4.5.4 Market awareness and penetration
Awareness is assumed to be highest among the network operators responsible for mobile
communications, HF communications and satellite navigation systems. Among this group, a
reasonable proportion understand the implications of SW and utilise some kind of information
source.
At the end user level, the awareness is extremely low. Certainly most users of mobile phones
and satellite navigation equipment will be unaware of the role that ionosphere plays in the
accuracy and reliability of the service provided.
4.5.5 Summary
The sectors examined in this section represent some of the key economic building blocks of
the modern world. The low priority of SW impacts in these sectors make it difficult to see a
large demand for SW services. Closer interaction with key sector representatives will be
required to fully understand the role for SW and a European SW programme.
ESYS-ESYS-2000260-RPT-02
Issue 1.1
28 September 2001 31 ESYS