market analysis final report v1.1 - ESA Space Weather Web Server

ESA Space Weather Programme Study Market Analysis - Final Report
ESYS-2000260-RPT-02
Issue 1.1
28 September 2001
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................1
1.1 Context..........................................................................................................................1
1.2 Aims and objectives......................................................................................................1
1.3 Methodology..................................................................................................................1
1.4 Interviews......................................................................................................................2
1.5 Document structure......................................................................................................2
1.6 Acknowledgements.......................................................................................................3
2 SPACE WEATHER EFFECTS............................................................................................4
2.1 Definition of SW............................................................................................................4
2.2 Dealing with Space Weather........................................................................................4
2.3 SW modelling and products .........................................................................................7
2.3.1 Types of SW model.............................................................................................7
2.3.2 SW products........................................................................................................8
2.3.3 Current modelling capability................................................................................9
2.4 Defining the user...........................................................................................................9
2.5 Military interests in SW.................................................................................................9
3 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF SPACE WEATHER........................................10
3.1 Negative economic impacts .......................................................................................10
3.1.1 Satellite operations............................................................................................10
3.1.2 Power generation and distribution....................................................................11
3.1.3 Communications ...............................................................................................12
3.1.4 Insurance...........................................................................................................12
3.1.5 Summary of economic losses...........................................................................13
3.2 Positive economic impacts.........................................................................................13
3.3 Social impacts of SW .................................................................................................13
3.3.1 Space and aviation............................................................................................13
3.3.2 Navigation..........................................................................................................14
3.3.3 Rail networks and trains....................................................................................14
3.3.4 Summary of social impacts ...............................................................................14
4 USER CHARACTERISATION AND REQUIREMENTS....................................................15
4.1 User segmentation......................................................................................................15
4.2 Satellite infrastructure.................................................................................................17
4.2.1 Overview............................................................................................................17
4.2.2 Trends and drivers ............................................................................................18
4.2.3 Requirements for SW services .........................................................................19
4.2.4 Market awareness and penetration...................................................................21
4.2.5 Summary...........................................................................................................22
4.3 Ground infrastructure..................................................................................................22
4.3.1 Overview............................................................................................................22
4.3.2 Trends and drivers ............................................................................................23
4.3.3 Requirements for SW services .........................................................................24
4.3.4 Market awareness and penetration...................................................................26
4.3.5 Summary...........................................................................................................27
4.4 Human.........................................................................................................................27
4.4.1 Overview............................................................................................................27
4.4.2 Trends and drivers ............................................................................................27