Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report: Impact ... - Aon

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AnnuAl GlobAl Cli mAte And C AtAstroph e r e port Historical Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions Abundant media attention has been given to various organizations across the world that issue hurricane season predictions for the Atlantic and Caribbean Oceans. These organizations utilize meteorological and climatic data obtained, in some instances, up to six months in advance to determine how active or inactive the following year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season will be. Several different professional entities issue these forecasts, ranging from governmental agencies to universities to private companies. The three organizations that consistently make their forecasts public are: • Colorado State University (CSU), a forecast group sponsored by Colorado State University and private companies led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray; • the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States’ official governmental climatological and meteorological office; and • Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), an Aon Benfield-sponsored forecast group based in London, England led by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea. Some of these entities disclose in detail the parameters being used to derive these forecasts, while others cite general factors for the reasoning of their predictions. For the five-year period shown here, Colorado State University (CSU) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) provide specific numbers, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides a range of values. Starting in December 2009, CSU started issuing their forecasts utilizing a range of values. The forecasts for the last five years made between the period of May 1st and June 10th along with the actual total number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes are shown in the following figures. The May/ June forecast was chosen due to the availability of forecasts from each organization. Additionally, a five-year cumulative forecast is shown to emphasize that short-term (one-year) forecasting is often more error-prone than long-term forecasting. Figure 18: 2009 Forecast forecast parameter 18 may/June Atlantic hurricane season forecast 25-Year Average Csu noAA tsr season total Named Storms 11.0 11 9-14 11 9 Hurricanes 6.4 5 4-7 5 3 Major Hurricanes 2.6 2 1-3 2 2 Figure 19: 2008 Forecast forecast parameter may/June Atlantic hurricane season forecast 25-Year Average Csu noAA tsr season total Named Storms 11.0 15 12-16 14 16 Hurricanes 6.4 8 6-9 8 8 Major Hurricanes 1.2 4 2-5 3 5
Figure 20: 2007 Forecast forecast parameter may/June Atlantic hurricane season forecast Aon b e n field: i m pAC t foreC AstinG 25-Year Average Csu noAA tsr season total Named Storms 11.0 17 13-17 16 15 Hurricanes 6.4 9 7-10 9 6 Major Hurricanes 1.2 5 3-5 4 2 Figure 21: 2006 Forecast forecast parameter may/June Atlantic hurricane season forecast 25-Year Average Csu noAA tsr season total Named Storms 11.0 17 13-16 14 9 Hurricanes 6.4 9 8-10 8 4 Major Hurricanes 1.2 5 4-6 3 2 Figure 22: 2005 Forecast forecast parameter may/June Atlantic hurricane season forecast 25-Year Average Csu noAA tsr season total Named Storms 11.0 15 12-15 14 27 Hurricanes 6.4 8 7-9 8 15 Major Hurricanes 1.2 4 3-5 4 7 Figure 23: 5-year Cumulative Forecast forecast parameter may/June Atlantic hurricane season forecast 25-Year Average Csu noAA tsr season total Named Storms 55 75 59-78 69 76 Hurricanes 32 39 32-45 38 36 Major Hurricanes 13 20 13-24 16 18 19
Page 1 and 2: ANNUAL GLOBAL CLIMATE AND CATASTROP
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents ExECUTIvE SUMMARy
Page 5 and 6: Aon b e n field: i m pAC t foreC As
Page 7 and 8: 2009 Climate Review Aon b e n field
Page 9 and 10: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Revi
Page 11 and 12: 2009 Western Pacific Typhoon Season
Page 13 and 14: 2009 United States Tornado Season R
Page 15 and 16: 2010 Climate and Atlantic Hurricane
Page 17: Aon b e n field: i m pAC t foreC As
Page 21 and 22: 2009 Monthly Catastrophe Review Jan
Page 27 and 28: March Aon b e n field: i m pAC t fo
Page 33 and 34: May • tropical Cyclone Aila destr
Page 37 and 38: June Aon b e n field: i m pAC t for
Page 43 and 44: August Aon b e n field: i m pAC t f
Page 49 and 50: October • four separate typhoons
Page 51 and 52: November • historic rainfall trig
Page 53 and 54: December • first major winter sto
Page 55 and 56: Appendix A: Catastrophe Recap Table
Page 57 and 58: United States (Continued) event dat
Page 59 and 60: Africa event date event name or typ
Page 61 and 62: Asia (Continued) event date event n
Page 63 and 64: Oceania (Australia, New Guinea, New
Page 65 and 66: Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO)
Page 67 and 68: Copyright © by Impact Forecasting

Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report: Impact ... - Aon

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