Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report: Impact ... - Aon

AnnuAl GlobAl Cli mAte And C AtAstroph e r e port
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks
An active 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is being forecast by two leading hurricane forecast research groups:
Colorado State University (CSU) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). The two firms released their predictions in
early December.
Figure 24: CSU 2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast (Issued December 9th, 2009)
forecast parameter Csu Average Year Csu forecast
20
Named Storms 9.6 11-16
Named Storm Days 49.1 55-75
Hurricanes 5.9 6-8
Hurricane Days 24.5 24-39
Intense Hurricanes 2.3 3-5
Intense Hurricane Days 5.0 6-12
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 100% 108%-172%
Figure 25: CSU 2010 Major Hurricane Landfall Probability Forecast (Issued December 9th, 2009)
forecast parameter Csu Average Year Csu forecast
Entire U.S. Coastline 52% 64%
U.S. East Coast including the Florida Peninsula 31% 40%
Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to Brownsville, Texas 30% 40%
The CSU Forecast can be viewed at: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
Figure 26: TSR 2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast (Issued December 7th, 2009)
forecast parameter tsr Average Year tsr forecast
Named Storms 10.4 (±4.2) 13.9 (±4.9)
Hurricanes 6.1 (±2.7) 7.4 (±3.1)
Intense Hurricanes 2.7 (±2.0) 3.4 (±1.8)
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 101% (±60) 135% (±59)
Figure 27: TSR 2010 Hurricane Landfall Forecast (Issued December 7th, 2009)
forecast parameter tsr Average Year tsr forecast
U.S. Named Storms 3.1 (±2.1) 4.4 (±2.2)
U.S. Hurricanes 1.5 (±1.3) 1.9 (±1.5)
Caribbean & Lesser Antilles Named Storms 1.0 (±1.0) 1.3 (±0.9)
Caribbean & Lesser Antilles Hurricanes 0.5 (±0.7) 0.6 (±0.6)
The TSR Forecast can be viewed at: http://tropicalstormrisk.com/