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Proposed Mixed Use Development, Braehead : Socio-Economic Impact Report 4.18 In addition to existing jobs on the site, some employment generated may be displaced from elsewhere in the local area (e.g. retailers moving units from elsewhere in Renfrewshire and Glasgow to the Braehead development or new jobs being filled by employees drawn from existing retail operators in the local area). Net employment impacts in the main impact area have been estimated by considering the extent to which the proposed development would displace some jobs from existing local businesses, or prevent other employment development proceeding. 4.19 The retail impact assessment which accompanies the planning application identifies that trade diversion from existing comparison floorspace in the Renfrewshire and wider Glasgow area would be limited, as a number of new retail developments are due to come on stream over the next few years across the West of Scotland which will reduce Braehead’s current turnover and shrink its wider trade draw. The Glasgow and The Clyde Valley SDP expects Glasgow City Centre to remain the principal retail destination in the plan area, and the retail impact analysis identifies that the proposed development at Braehead will not affect this commitment to the future role of the City Centre. 4.20 The assessment estimates trade diversion associated with the proposed additional retail development at Braehead, taking account of factors such as the existing pattern of trade draw to Braehead, the location and nature of the main competing centres including those new developments which will have been implemented by 2018, and the extent to which the expanded Braehead facilities are likely to be sufficiently attractive to divert trade from other centres. Compared with expected turnover in 2018 without any investment/expansion, this trade diversion analysis indicates a 46% increase in turnover at Braehead, at the expense of a 9% reduction at the retail park, 1% reduction in Glasgow City Centre, 9.1% reduction at Glasgow Harbour and 7.3% reduction at Silverburn. However, in all instances the estimated levels of trade diversion are well within tolerance levels for the affected centres and most centres can expect to be trading at well above benchmark levels following the Braehead development (the two exceptions being the Braehead retail park and Glasgow Harbour). 4.21 As such, displacement effects are expected to be low, and as a broad estimate it is assumed that no more than 5% of the additional jobs created by the proposed development will result from displacement of the retail and other jobs from elsewhere in the local area. This equates to 133 (105 FTE) jobs. 4.22 Overall, after allowing for such displacement effects, the net additional jobs resulting from the proposed development are estimated to be in the order of 2,520 (1,990 FTE) at the local level, as shown in Table 4.3 below. P18 3366706v3
Proposed Mixed Use Development, Braehead: Socio-Economic Impact Report Table 4.3 Net Additional Employment Total Jobs FTE Jobs Gross job generation of proposed development 2,650 2,090 Less job displacement in Local Area (5%) 133 105 Net additional employment 2,520 1,990 Source: NLP analysis (totals rounded) Gross Value Added 4.23 As with the construction phase of the development, the operational phase will also make a significant contribution to local GVA by supporting the creation of new employment. Between them, the net additional direct jobs generated by the proposed extension could deliver an additional £45 million of GVA per year for the local economy (Table 4.4). This is equivalent to 1.4% of the total GVA generated across the whole of Renfrewshire’s economy in 2012. Table 4.4 Operational GVA Impacts (Net Additional) Proposed Use No of FTE Jobs Average GVA per FTE † Total GVA Retail 1,643 £24,380 £40.1m Financial/Professional and Food and Drink 250 £13,395 £3.3m Hotel 64 £20,080 £1.3m Arena/Leisure 19 £11,480 £218,110 Transport Interchange 6 £25,040 £150,220 Total (rounded) 1,990 £45m Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2008 / NLP analysis † Based on ABI 2008 GVA data (Scotland) Indirect/Induced Employment 4.24 Indirect jobs will be supported by the spending on goods, supplies and services, of the retail and other operators based on site with firms in the surrounding area. The spending of wages by both employees of firms on the site and of the local firms supplying goods and services to these companies will also support induced employment in other local shops, other services and other firms. These types of employment are normally estimated using employment multipliers derived from research on similar operations elsewhere, with adjustments to reflect the specific characteristics of the proposed development, the amount of spending retained in the local area, and local economic and labour market conditions. 3366706v3 P19
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