Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail

Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail Spring 2010
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Travel Time
The District of Columbia and counties along the study corridor display a greater number of workers
commuting 45 minutes or longer than jurisdictions located further from the corridor.
Jurisdictions with the highest number of commuters traveling 45 minutes or longer are primarily in
Northern VA, including D.C., and south to Spotsylvania County, capturing 6,036-121,835 workers. From
greatest to least, these jurisdictions in the service area include Fairfax and Prince William counties, the
District of Columbia, Loudoun, Stafford, and Arlington counties, Alexandria City, Spotsylvania,
Chesterfield, Fauquier, and Henrico counties, and Richmond City.
The middle category of jurisdictions captures from 1,566-6,035 commuters traveling 45 minutes or
longer to work. Other than five of the jurisdictions located more closely to the study corridor, they
mostly extend further west and east of the corridor. Jurisdictions in this range include, from greatest to
least, Manassas, Culpeper, Hanover, Louisa, Powhatan, Caroline, and Orange counties, Fairfax City,
Westmoreland County, Manassas Park City, and Goochland, King George, Prince George, and
Fredericksburg counties.
The least number of commuters traveling 45 minutes or more reside mainly in jurisdictions that are
located furthest east and south of the corridor study area, with the exception of the City of Falls Church
in Northern Virginia.
While the aforementioned analysis includes commuters using all modes, a closer look at travel time by
individual mode reveals that commuters driving alone for 45 minutes or greater follows a similar pattern
to that of all modes. Rail commuters however, demonstrate a major shift in pattern. Jurisdictions south
of Spotsylvania County reflect a negligible number of commuters traveling by rail for 45 minutes or
longer. In jurisdictions north of Spotsylvania a much greater number of commuters are using rail and
traveling for 45 minutes or longer.
Travel Cost
The existing rail market demand within the study corridor is represented by evaluating the cost
difference of operating an automobile compared to riding Amtrak. Figure 3-5 shows the counties within
the service area where the cost to ride Amtrak is at least 1% less than driving. For example, commuters
traveling from Henrico County, VA to Washington, D.C. have a potential cost savings of 10% - 19% when
riding Amtrak instead of driving. The gray regions of the map identify the counties where commuters
are not likely to save money by riding Amtrak. Figure 3-6 shows the counties where the cost to ride
Amtrak is at least 1% less than driving to Richmond, VA.
The average automobile commute calculated for the cost maps is $0.45 per mile, which includes the
costs of gasoline, wear and tear per 15,000 annual miles traveled, average insurance, and purchase/loan
payment. The cost of using Amtrak rail was calculated based on the average ticket price for traveled
distance. Cost effective regions within the service area could expand with the implementation of HSR
operations, particularly along the corridor.