Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail

Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail Spring 2010
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Figure 6-1: Comparison of Projected Ridership (Build vs. No-Build Scenario)
The model shows a ridership increase in the build scenario of 189% compared to the no-build scenario
for the forecasted years of 2015, 2025 and 2035, assuming a 8% increase to 2035 (Table 4). The nobuild
scenario would take an additional 25 years before reaching the forecasted levels of the 2015 build
ridership forecast.
The difference in ridership between the build and no-build scenarios is used in the analysis to calculate
some of the costs and benefits of the project. The projected ridership will also be used to calculate the
build scenario AVMT on the I-95 corridor. These two measures form the basis for the majority of the
estimates for costs and benefits including the operating costs, external costs, external benefits and
travel time benefits. For the complete process used to set up the model and calculate projected
ridership and AVMT, see Appendix B.
6.3 Data Sources and Methodology
Various techniques and models have been developed to predict the levels of use (i.e., ridership). One
simple method uses past trends and applies them to the future. Other methods predict yearly ridership
solely on one variable, such as the population. The gravity model incorporates observation-based
variables and interactions between them to predict future interactions. The use of this model
anticipates ridership in the build scenario between city pairs randomly selected in the HSR Northeast
Corridor. The gravity model, compounded by other methods of analysis, provides a more
comprehensive predictive model that result in a higher confidence of ridership forecasts. The results
from this model provide key elements of knowledge, such as amount and type of demand, about
resource requirements for future management planning and are a critical factor in the decision-making
and design process.