Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail

Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail Spring 2010
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Year Passenger Mile Cost Train Mile Cost
2015 $3,192,178.64 $7,809,840.86
2016 $4,029,468.15 $8,356,529.72
2017 $5,075,969.44 $8,941,486.81
2018 $6,383,300.53 $9,567,390.88
2019 $8,015,974.81 $10,237,108.24
2020 $10,054,735.37 $10,953,705.82
2021 $12,600,801.06 $11,720,465.23
2022 $15,781,293.57 $12,540,897.79
2023 $19,756,202.33 $13,418,760.64
2024 $24,727,363.34 $14,358,073.88
2025 $30,950,092.39 $15,363,139.06
2026 $38,748,341.28 $82,192,793.95
2027 $48,534,565.71 $87,946,289.53
2028 $60,835,948.95 $94,102,529.79
2029 $76,329,279.65 $100,689,706.88
2030 $88,186,710.14 $107,737,986.36
2031 $101,862,414.46 $115,279,645.40
2032 $117,630,765.41 $123,349,220.58
2033 $135,806,657.49 $131,983,666.02
2034 $156,751,307.25 $141,222,522.64
2035 $180,878,842.48 $151,108,099.23
Table 5-2: Increased Operating Costs by Passenger Mile and Train Mile
Fare revenues and expected subsidy were calculated using the additional operating costs based on train
miles and fares as projected in the ridership model. Figures 5-2 and 5-3 below, show the comparison
for train miles and passenger miles, respectively. The initial subsidy per passenger is estimated to be
$218 36 . It should be noted that this subsidy estimate does not include the cost of rolling stock, which
would likely be provided by Amtrak. Due to the constraints of this study’s scope, this analysis takes into
account only trips between Washington and Richmond. Once the corridor is connected to other HSR
corridors it is likely that the ridership and passenger miles traveled will increase. The per-passenger
mile operating cost and required subsidy would decrease as the ridership in the corridor increases. It is
likley that operating costs would be less if the full ridership, including through traffic, was included in
the analysis. Because this additional traffic is not included in the analysis, it might be more useful to
calculate the subsidy based on passenger mile. This analysis assumes the system-wide average $0.554
per passenger mile operating cost. If the full ridership data information becomes available it would be
beneficial for future studies to address this issue and adjust the passenger mile operating cost rate
according to overall ridership.
36 See Appendix C for the full table of results of this analysis.