Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail

Cost Benefit Analysis of Washington-Richmond High-Speed Rail Spring 2010
1. Introduction
In January 2010, Amtrak and a group of 20 students from George Mason University’s Transportation
Policy, Organization and Logistics (TPOL) master’s degree program entered into an agreement to
conduct a semester-long study of a High Speed Rail (HSR) line between Washington D.C. and Richmond,
Virginia. This report represents the results of that partnership.
Current passenger rail service along this route operates at a maximum speed of 70 miles per hour
(mph). According to the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), in order to qualify as HSR, a passenger
train must attain a speed of at least 110 mph. Also imperative to HSR operation is the ability to sustain
high speeds over the length of a trip. This is expected to be difficult on the Washington-Richmond
corridor due to the lack of additional overtake rail availability and multiple stops in the current route.
Recently, there has been increased interest in establishing HSR service in the United States. President
Barack Obama made HSR a transportation priority of his administration. Environmental concerns,
increased demand for long distance commuting, and increased congestion fuels public interest in HSR.
There is considerable interest for HSR in the Commonwealth of Virginia. In 2009, Virginia applied for
$1.8 billion in federal stimulus money for overall HSR improvements. Virginia commuters have proven
to be strong supporters of rail transit with ridership rising in the first four months of 2010 reaching a
record average of 17,000 riders per day 1 .
The current opportunity for HSR in Virginia is expected to be high, especially considering that it has
received bipartisan political support. “Virginia doesn’t have the money and other resources to build
more roads; the far greater solution is going to have to be rail and transit, and you might as well get
used to it” said state Delegate Joe May, R-Leesburg, at a Virginia House meeting in January 2010. “It’s
not a choice; it’s just the way it has to be.” 2 In a recent study done by Northern Virginia Transportation
Alliance on jobs, population and travel trends from 2000-2020, some interesting statistics were revealed
about the region that underscore the need for HSR in the state of Virginia. 3
• 13% projected increase in highway capacity
• 25% projected in population growth
• 33% projected in increase in jobs (900,000)
• 36% increase in daily trips (6.1 million)
• 43% increase in daily miles travel
This report analyzes if it is cost beneficial for a HSR line to offer passenger service between Washington
D.C. and Richmond. The findings are based on issues including expected ridership, fare prices,
1 Virginia Railway Express, “VRE Performance Measures ,” April 16, 2010,
http://www.vre.org/about/company/performance-measures.pdf.
2 Peters Laura, “Virginia Looks Toward Rail, Transit,” Midlothianexchange.com, February 1, 2010.
3 http://www.drpt.virginia.gov/studies/files/WashingtonD.C.StudyDetails.pdf
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