Final Report Supplement - Joint Fire Science Program

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Zotero Report zotero://report/items/520446_XG98FERT-520446_89BHQIMS-520446... Type Journal Article Author Ulf Büntgen Author Willy Tegel Author Kurt Nicolussi Author Michael McCormick Author David Frank Author Valerie Trouet Author Jed O. Kaplan Author Franz Herzig Author Karl-Uwe Heussner Author Heinz Wanner Author Jürg Luterbacher Author Jan Esper Abstract Climate variations have influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence. Here, we present tree ring–based reconstructions of Central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~AD 250 to 600 coincided with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Historical circumstances may challenge recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change. Publication Science Volume 331 Issue 6017 Pages 578-582 Date 4 February 2011 Journal Abbr Science DOI 10.1126/science.1197175 ISSN 0036-8075 URL http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6017/578.full Date Added Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:47:25 AM Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:34:11 AM A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America Type Journal Article Author Connie A. Woodhouse Author David M. Meko Author Glen M. MacDonald Author Dave W. Stahle Author Edward R. Cook Abstract A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperaturedrought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900–1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future 2 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM
Zotero Report zotero://report/items/520446_XG98FERT-520446_89BHQIMS-520446... drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future. Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Volume 107 Issue 50 Pages 21283 -21288 Date December 14 , 2010 Journal Abbr PNAS DOI 10.1073/pnas.0911197107 ISSN 0027-8424 URL http://www.pnas.org/content/107/50/21283.abstract Extra Keywords: climate change; water resources; paleoclimatology; medieval period. Date Added Saturday, August 27, 2011 12:55:16 AM Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:26:46 AM A 10,000 year record of dune activity, dust storms, and severe drought in the central Great Plains Type Journal Article Author Xiaodong Miao Author Joseph A. Mason Author James B. Swinehart Author David B. Loope Author Paul R. Hanson Author Ronald J. Goble Author Xiaodong Liu Abstract Dune fields and loess deposits of the Great Plains of North America contain stratigraphic records of eolian activity that can be used to extend the short observational record of drought. We present a 10,000 yr reconstruction of dune activity and dust production in the central Great Plains region, based on 95 optically stimulated luminescence ages. The integration of data from both eolian sand and loess is an important new aspect of this record. Clusters of ages define episodes of extensive eolian activity, which we interpret as a response to frequent severe drought, at 1.0–0.7 ka and 2.3–4.5 ka (with peaks centered on 2.5 and 3.8 ka); sustained eolian activity occurred from 9.6 to 6.5 ka. Parts of this record may be consistent with hypotheses linking Holocene drought to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific or Atlantic oceans, or to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, but the record as a whole is difficult to reconcile with any of these hypotheses. Publication Geology Volume 35 Issue 2 Pages 119-122 Date February 2007 Journal Abbr Geology DOI 10.1130/G23133A.1 ISSN 0091-7613 URL http://geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/doi/10.1130/G23133A.1 Extra Keywords: drought; eolian sand; loess; OSL dating; Great Plains; Holocene; Medieval Climate Anomaly. Date Added Tuesday, August 30, 2011 2:35:38 PM Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:22:50 AM A 14 000 year sedimentary charcoal record of fire from the northern Sierra Nevada, Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA 3 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM
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Final Report Supplement - Joint Fire Science Program

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