Final Report Supplement - Joint Fire Science Program

Zotero Report zotero://report/items/520446_XG98FERT-520446_89BHQIMS-520446...
Author Gerald A. Meehl
Author David Bader
Author Thomas L. Delworth
Author Ben Kirtman
Author Bruce Wielicki
Abstract There is a new perspective of a continuum of prediction problems, with a blurring of the distinction between
short-term predictions and long-term climate projections. At the heart of this new perspective is the realization
that all climate system predictions, regardless of time scale, share common processes and mechanisms;
moreover, interactions across time and space scales are fundamental to the climate system itself. Further, just as
seasonal-to-interannual predictions start from an estimate of the state of the climate system, there is a growing
realization that decadal and longer-term climate predictions could be initialized with estimates of the current
observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. Even though the prediction problem
itself is seamless, the best practical approach to it may be described as unified: models aimed at different time
scales and phenomena may have large commonality but place emphasis on different aspects of the system. The
potential benefits of this commonality are significant and include improved predictions on all time scales and
stronger collaboration and shared knowledge, infrastructure, and technical capabilities among those in the
weather and climate prediction communities.
Publication Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume 90
Issue 12
Pages 1819-1832
Date December 2009
Journal Abbr BAMS
DOI 10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1
ISSN 0003-0007
URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1
Date Added Monday, August 29, 2011 5:30:07 PM
Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:30:44 AM
A very inconvenient truth
Type Journal Article
Author Charles H. Greene
Author D. James Baker
Author Daniel H. Miller
Abstract Studies conducted after those that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) suggest that human society may be facing a very inconvenient truth—that
emission reduction efforts alone are unlikely to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at levels low enough to
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Here, we discuss reasons why the IPCC
process is prone to underestimating the threats of global climate change. We then review some of the critical
policy-relevant scientific findings that have emerged since the release of the IPCC FAR. Finally, we discuss how
these new findings fundamentally transform the debate on efforts needed to prevent dangerous changes to our
climate system. It now appears that to avoid such changes, society will likely need to adopt a mixed strategy of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and employing geoengineering approaches that extract carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere and/or reduce the level of incoming solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface.
Publication Oceanography
Volume 23
Issue 1
Pages 214–218
Date March 2010
Journal Abbr Oceanography
ISSN 1042-8275
URL http://www.doaj.org/doaj?
func=abstract&…
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