Final Report Supplement - Joint Fire Science Program

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Zotero Report zotero://report/items/520446_XG98FERT-520446_89BHQIMS-520446... pre-industrial era. Publication Atmospheric Environment Volume 43 Issue 12 Pages 2084-2086 Date April 2009 Journal Abbr Atmo. Environ. DOI 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.028 ISSN 1352-2310 URL http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231008011540 Extra Keywords: climate change; carbon dioxide. Date Added Monday, August 29, 2011 5:30:07 PM Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:31:02 AM A new look at global forest histories of land clearing Type Journal Article Author Michael Williams Abstract Uncertainty about historical evidence of forest clearing is highlighted; nevertheless, its longevity and basic importance for survival make an understanding of the process important. First, archaeological and paleobotanical evidence for clearing during late Mesolithic and Neolithic Europe is examined. A similar examination of the Americas during past millennia emphasizes the myth of a pristine precontact forest. Post-1950s deforestation is beset with similar problems of forest extent and loss, pathways and processes of change, and the rate of change. Recent literature also reflects concerns about past and present motives in clearing and management, emphasizing conflicts between traditional users and modern producers, North/South inequalities of consumption/production, and social confrontation. The cultural meaning of the forest is another current theme, developed through dominant “discourses.” Finally, I argue that humans and the organic world are intimately entwined, and our expectations and ideas of the natural world actually mold the way we use and manipulate it. Publication Annual Review of Environment and Resources Volume 33 Issue 1 Pages 345–367 Date November 2008 Journal Abbr Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. DOI 10.1146/annurev.environ.33.040307.093859 ISSN 1543-5938 URL http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.environ.33.040307.093859 Extra Keywords: contemporary deforestation; ethics of clearing; historical uncertainty; prehistoric cleaning. Date Added Saturday, August 27, 2011 12:55:16 AM Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:26:54 AM A new method for determining the reliability of dynamical ENSO predictions Type Journal Article Author Richard Kleeman Author Andrew M. Moore Abstract Determination of the reliability of particular ENSO forecasts is of particular importance to end users. Theoretical arguments are developed that indicate that the amplitudes of slowly decaying (or growing) normal modes of the coupled system provide a useful measure of forecast reliability. Historical forecasts from a skillful prediction model together with a series of ensemble predictions from a “perfect model” experiment are used to demonstrate that these arguments carry over to the practical prediction situation. In such a setting it is found that the amplitude of the dominant normal mode, which strongly resembles the observed ENSO cycle, is a 20 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM
Zotero Report zotero://report/items/520446_XG98FERT-520446_89BHQIMS-520446... potentially useful index of reliability. The fact that this index was generally lower in the 1970s than the 1980s provides an explanation for why many coupled models performed better in the latter decade. It does not, however, explain the low skill of some coupled models in the early 1990s as the index defined here was then moderate. Publication Monthly Weather Review Volume 127 Issue 5 Pages 694-705 Date May 1999 Journal Abbr Mon. Wea. Rev. DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)1272.0.CO;2 ISSN 0027-0644 URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175 /1520-0493%281999%29127%3C0694%3AANMFDT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Date Added Tuesday, August 30, 2011 2:37:15 PM Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:15:37 AM A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance Type Journal Article Author Greg Kopp Author Judith L. Lean Abstract The most accurate value of total solar irradiance during the 2008 solar minimum period is 1360.8 ± 0.5 Wm⁻² according to measurements from the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) on NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and a series of new radiometric laboratory tests. This value is significantly lower than the canonical value of 1365.4 ± 1.3 Wm⁻² established in the 1990s, which energy balance calculations and climate models currently use. Scattered light is a primary cause of the higher irradiance values measured by the earlier generation of solar radiometers in which the precision aperture defining the measured solar beam is located behind a larger, view-limiting aperture. In the TIM, the opposite order of these apertures precludes this spurious signal by limiting the light entering the instrument. We assess the accuracy and stability of irradiance measurements made since 1978 and the implications of instrument uncertainties and instabilities for climate research in comparison with the new TIM data. TIM's lower solar irradiance value is not a change in the Sun's output, whose variations it detects with stability comparable or superior to prior measurements; instead, its significance is in advancing the capability of monitoring solar irradiance variations on climate-relevant time scales and in improving estimates of Earth energy balance, which the Sun initiates. Publication Geophysical Research Letters Volume 38 Issue 1 Pages L01706 (7 p.) Date January 2011 Journal Abbr Geophys. Res. Lett. DOI 10.1029/2010GL045777 ISSN 0094-8276 URL http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010GL045777.shtml Extra Keywords: solar irradiance; solar variability; climate variability; global climate models. Date Added Tuesday, August 30, 2011 2:37:15 PM Modified Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:17:02 AM A polycentric approach for coping with climate change Type Report Author Elinor Ostrom 21 of 626 9/1/2011 11:40 AM
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Final Report Supplement - Joint Fire Science Program

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