Modeling deforestation baselines using GEOMOD - Instituto ...

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Finalizing Avoided Deforestation Baselines Figure 5. Four spatially distributed factors that may explain deforestation patterns in Campeche – Ejido land use history, distance from communities, distance from year-round bodies of water, elevation. Winrock International A- 14
Finalizing Avoided Deforestation Baselines Table 3. Percent of each class of each driver already deforested in 1995. The set shown here is for the five drivers used in the analysis of the northern portion and are for the municipio of Champoton only. Results for each municipio for the final set of drivers used are reported in full in the Appendix (Table 1 ). A value of 0.0 indicates no cells in that class are deforested. A value of –1.0 indicates that there are no cells of that class. REGION 2: Champoton CATEGORY MAP_1 MAP_2 MAP_3 MAP_4 MAP_5 1 1.79 39.13 48.30 35.83 24.38 2 0.71 51.09 20.01 8.68 10.14 3 3.69 10.24 5.93 5.80 5.90 4 3.14 5.23 3.77 3.14 0.19 5 2.66 5.80 3.30 0.65 0.11 6 1.80 1.39 1.75 0.29 0.21 7 4.00 0.41 0.10 0.35 0.83 8 2.66 1.67 0.44 0.44 0.65 9 4.88 0.58 0.69 0.04 1.10 10 9.43 0.11 0.75 0.02 1.60 11 11.95 0.01 0.01 1.92 4.54 12 12.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.58 13 14.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.70 14 18.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.90 15 17.63 0.00 0.00 -1.00 10.21 16 18.77 0.00 0.00 -1.00 7.12 17 24.26 0.00 0.00 -1.00 8.14 18 47.12 -1.00 0.00 -1.00 8.02 19 93.28 -1.00 0.00 -1.00 12.70 20 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 18.94 21 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 27.91 22 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 29.15 23 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 27.34 24 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 38.58 25 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 44.94 26 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 22.72 27 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 3.99 28 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.00 0 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Map 1 = Distance from Archeological Sites, Map 2 = Elevation, Map 3 = Distance from Towns, Map 4 = Distance from 1970’s Agriculture, Map 5 = Distance from year-round streams Assessing spatial pattern driver significance To test statistically how well each candidate driver map (Figure 5) or combination of maps allows us to match the actual 2000 landscape, we simulated land-use change between 1995 and 2000 using one potential ‘driver’ at time, followed by multiple combinations of driver maps. The success of each driver in helping GEOMOD find the “right” cells in 2000 is measured by the kappa-for-location statistic. Different pattern drivers exhibit more or less ability to improve on projections depending on the municipio analyzed (Table 4). The individual most successful driver across all municipios in the north (kappa = 0.2307) was distance to archeological sites, while in the southern half of the region, ejidos were the most significant factor (kappa = 0.0927). We did not have complete ejido coverage in the north, but the area missing ejido Winrock International A- 15
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