Modeling deforestation baselines using GEOMOD - Instituto ...

Finalizing Avoided Deforestation Baselines
Assessing spatial pattern driver significance
To test statistically how well each of a variety of candidate driver maps would allow us to match the actual
2000 landscape, we simulated the 2000 landscape starting in 1993 creating a vulnerability map for each
driver, and then for multiple combinations of driver maps. We have good results with the first
reclassification of each distance driver. (Figure 18).
Figure 18. Candidate spatial drivers maps
As shown in Table 15, not enforcing the ‘neighborhood’ function we received the highest kappa-forlocation
(0.15) using all 9 drivers. To see if we could improve our kappa statistic we again tested one
driver at a time but this time enforcing the neighbourhood contiguity requirement. For each driver,
GEOMOD calculated the percent correct and the kappa statistic, which were evaluated to see how well
each driver performed by itself in explaining the variation (Table 16). Different pattern drivers exhibit
more or less ability to improve on projections depending on the subregion analyzed (Table 17). The
highest kappa (0.3529) was achieved in the Patzcuaro sub-region using slope, distance to roads,
distance to water, soils and elevation.
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