Asia's Arc of Advantage - icrier

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political construct. 58 Such robust defence of India’s candidature for EAS membership from the countries in the region also reinforced India’s role as a legitimate player in the region. In subsequent years, India’s three pillars of regional architecture – emphasising ASEAN centrality, calling for open architecture and supporting resolution of all issues in accordance with international law – were broadly in consonance with those of its friends in East Asia. For instance, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, speaking at the 6 th East Asia Summit Plenary Session, noted: “The East Asia Summit is the forum for building an open, inclusive and transparent architecture of regional co-operation in the Asia-Pacific region.” 59 Prime Minster Singh, speaking at the 2011 East Asia Summit, also noted: “the resurgence of Asia is dependent on the evolution of a co-operative architecture in which all countries are equal participants. We will work with all other countries towards this end.” 60 The Vision Statement adopted at the India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit (December 20, 2012) states: “We are committed to a stable and peaceful regional environment for the pursuit of sustainable development in the region. India reaffirms its continued support for ASEAN’s centrality in the evolving regional architecture, including the EAS, ARF, ADMM Plus, and other regional processes.” 61 Indian leaders also called for India and the ASEAN nations to work towards greater “maritime security and safety, for freedom of navigation and for peaceful settlement of maritime disputes in accordance with international law.” 62 In the economic realm, the free trade agreement (FTA) in goods with ASEAN, operationalised in 2011, prompted a significant growth of 41 per cent in India-ASEAN trade during the Indian fiscal year of 2011-12. 63 India-ASEAN trade now totals $80 billion and is soon expected to grow to $100 billion. The proportion of India’s trade with the EAS countries (original 10+6) has grown from 19 per cent to 30 per cent of India’s total trade between 1991 and 2010. 64 India has also been participating in discussions pertaining to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Programme (RCEP). While there is significant progress, there is also growing demand from Southeast Asian countries for greater Indian presence in the economic, political and security 58 Ellen L. Frost, “India’s Role in East Asia: Lessons from Cultural and Historical Linkages,” RIS Discussion Papers, RIS-DP 147, available at http://ris.org.in/images/RIS_images/pdf/dp147_pap.pdf. 59 Manmohan Singh, “Statement by PM at the 6th East Asia Summit Plenary Session,” Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, November 19, 2011, available at http://mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements. htm?dtl/6974/Statement+by+PM+at+the+6th+East+Asia+Summit+Plenary+Session. 60 Archis Mohan, “Khurshid to Attend crucial ASEAN-India, ARF and East Asia Summit Meetings in Brunei,” Ministry of External Affairs, June 27, 2013, available at http://www.mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm?21879/ Khurshid+to+attend+crucial+ASEANIndia+ARF+and+East+Asia+Summit+meetings+in+Brunei. 61 “Vision Statement ASEAN India Commemorative Summit,” ASEAN, December 21, 2012, available at http:// www.asean.org/news/asean-statement-communiques/item/vision-statement-asean-india-commemorativesummit. 62 “India Expands Strategic Ties with Asean,” Times of India, December 21, 2012, available at http://articles. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-12-21/india/35952491_1_india-asean-relationship-india-and-aseannations-asean-community. 63 ASEAN India Team, “Closing Remarks by Prime Minister at India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit 2012,” December 20, 2012, available at http://www.aseanindia.com/speeches-and-statements/2012/12/20/closingremarks-by-prime-minister-at-india-asean-commemorative-summit-2012. 64 Hemant Krishan Singh, “India’s Future as an Asia-Pacific Power,” India-US Insight, October18, 2011, available at http://icrier.org/ICRIER_Wadhwani/Index_files/ICRIER-Wadhwani%20Chair-%20India-US%20Insight- OCT%202011.pdf 80 | Asia’s Arc of Advantage
Chart 12: India’s Total Trade with ASEAN (in billion of US$) 90 80 70 76.47896 79.3 60 52.69988 50 40 30 20 10 10 13.2639 17.5333 21.2918 30.6968 38.3909 43.25805 41.31619 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: Asian Regional Integration Centre ; "India- ASEAN Relations," Report of Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, April 2013 ; "Trends in India’s Merchandise Trade with Asean," Mint, August 20, 2008. realms. Enhanced connectivity, more partnerships in the security domain and integration with production networks in East Asia by India would act as a catalyst in the creation of an open, balanced and transparent regional architecture. The United States: Seeking to Establish the Primacy of the EAS It is interesting to note that the US was not a part of the East Asia Summit forum in 2005. The obvious reason was that the US did not accede to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Co-operation and therefore, it could not be invited to become a member of the EAS at the time. There was also a perception that the US was too pre-occupied in the affairs of the Middle East because of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. This notion was strengthened by the non-participation of then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in the ASEAN Regional Forum meetings in 2005 and 2007. In 2005, Secretary Rice stayed away from the ARF to express displeasure at the possibility of Myanmar taking over as the Chair of ASEAN in the following year, and she again skipped the ARF meeting in 2007 and instead scheduled a visit to Middle East. Not surprisingly, the absence of the US from these meetings was termed as a “dampener” and as “sending wrong signals” to the Southeast Asian countries. 65 This was also in marked contrast to the “diplomatic offensive” 66 of China in the region. The advent of the Obama administration brought in changes in US Policy towards East Asia. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in 2011, termed the 21 st Century as “America’s Pacific Century” and stated that “one of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next 65 Emma-Kate Symons, “ASEAN Anger at Snub by Rice,” The Australian, July 26, 2007, available at http://www. theaustralian.com.au/news/asean-anger-at-snub-by-rice/story-e6frg6t6-1111114037879. 66 Ralph A Cossa, “Rice’s Unfortunate Choice”, Asia Times, July 28, 2005, available at http://atimes.com/atimes/ Southeast_Asia/GG28Ae03.html. The Evolution of the East Asia Summit: Competing Interests and Multiple Approaches | 81
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A REPORT OF THE ICRIER WADHWANI CHA
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ICRIER Wadhwani Programme of Resear
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VI.i “Connecting East : The Myanm
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The ICRIER Wadhwani Chair is please
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vi | Asia’s Arc of Advantage
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space, even though some would argue
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Recommendations The “Emerging Asi
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• Based on their regional experie
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List of Maps Map 1: The Indo-Pacifi
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ASEM Asia-Europe Meeting ASSM ASEAN
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TPP TTR UNCLOS UNCTAD US USPACOM US
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Indian side and 10 on the ASEAN sid
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I.ii Advancing India-US-ASEAN Co-op
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Maritime Security and HADR Given th
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I.iii India’s ‘Look East’ and
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Concrete Next Steps Under instructi
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easons. The lack of historical bagg
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17. Prof. G.V.C. Naidu, Professor a
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II INDIA’S ROLE IN SHAPING ASIAN
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“strategic bet” 3 on the develo
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tendency to cite ‘strategic auton
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However, these declarations of inte
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Chart 1: Average Increase in Percen
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Table 1: GDP Projections of Seven L
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V. Security Issues Since 2010, Chin
Page 52 and 53: power. It also holds that within As
Page 54 and 55: Secretary Kerry’s visit to China
Page 56 and 57: institution for political and strat
Page 58 and 59: Reconnecting to Southeast Asia The
Page 60 and 61: global Cold War issues. When the AS
Page 62 and 63: co-operation. Although the pace of
Page 64 and 65: While the theoretical debate on the
Page 66 and 67: Naval ships from India, Australia,
Page 68 and 69: of communication for unfettered mov
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Page 72 and 73: Chinese Aircraft Carrier Liaoning S
Page 74 and 75: China Sea issue, only to be publicl
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Page 80 and 81: Whatever the domestic motivations o
Page 82 and 83: IV. i EAST ASIA SUMMIT MEMBER STATE
Page 84 and 85: Crucially, the numbers incorporated
Page 86 and 87: Chart 6: East Asian Summit Member S
Page 88 and 89: 3500 Chart 10: Air Force Aircraft (
Page 90 and 91: Map 6: APEC Member Economies Table
Page 92 and 93: partner, Japan and Korea responded
Page 94 and 95: Korea were invited to be part of th
Page 96 and 97: decisions that would have regional
Page 98 and 99: a community.” 37 Prime Minister K
Page 100 and 101: The Second East Asia Summit in Cebu
Page 104 and 105: decade will be to lock in a substan
Page 106 and 107: them to the status of objects, rath
Page 108 and 109: VI INDIA-ASEAN CONNECTIVITY: A STRA
Page 110 and 111: China is by far the largest investo
Page 112 and 113: Map 9: Kaladan Multi-Modal Project
Page 114 and 115: meeting in September 2012 decided t
Page 116 and 117: and ASEAN by combining physical con
Page 118 and 119: mill. 38 It should be noted that in
Page 120 and 121: South Korean companies are now seek
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Page 124 and 125: • Support for democratic institut
Page 126 and 127: Executive Summary and Key Recommend
Page 128 and 129: with the downsides of greater conne
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Page 132 and 133: B. Executive Summary of “ASEAN-In
Page 134 and 135: under construction and the projects
Page 136 and 137: Figure 4: Selected Infrastructure P
Page 138 and 139: 3-3. A Regional Framework A regiona
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Page 142 and 143: Figure 7: Economic Corridors, 47 De
Page 144 and 145: WELCOMING India’s consistent supp
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Page 148 and 149: D. Recommendations by ASEAN-US Emin
Page 150 and 151: and delivered by September 30, 2013
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Socio-Cultural The Leaders should r
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About the Authors and Contributors
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Ted Osius Ted Osius is currently a
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