Asia's Arc of Advantage - icrier

is not expected to carry an operational air wing until approximately 2015, China’s ongoing
development of carrier capabilities is a sign of the country’s growing interest in the ability to
project maritime power effectively. 2 Given this state of affairs, China’s recent moves to claim
the South China Sea as a “core interest” are hardly surprising, nor is its preference for regional
architecture structured around the ASEAN + 3 powers.
When the militaries of the East Asia Summit (EAS) member states are considered, China’s
military preponderance markedly decreases. Overall, China’s share of total military manpower
falls from 44 per cent to 30 per cent. This difference is even more apparent when the separate
branches of the military are compared.
In terms of total ships, China has 32 per cent of the total for ASEAN+3, and only 26 per cent
of the total for the EAS nations. Numerically, this is not a huge difference, and China still has
more than double the total number of ships of any EAS member nation. In the most prominent
indicators of naval force projection ability, however, China is nowhere near as preponderant.
Although China has more submarines than any other power, the difference is not dramatic:
China has 71 submarines, USPACOM has 40, and Russia has 59. In addition, only nine of
China’s submarines are nuclear powered as compared to 40 for USPACOM and 39 for Russia.
Of course, this information must be processed while keeping in mind that Russia’s current
strategic interests may align more closely with China than with those of other EAS member
states. Most strikingly, China has only one aircraft carrier while USPACOM has five and
India and Russia each have one (while Russia once had several aircraft carriers, many have
been decommissioned and sold to other countries, including the former Gorshkov which will
become India’s INS Vikramaditya). 3 There is a coinciding disparity in naval aviation capability,
as USPACOM has 2,000 naval aviation aircraft, almost four times as many as any other EAS
member nation (China has 527). When looking at naval aviation data, however, it is important
to keep in mind that some countries, such as Myanmar, have no naval aviation aircraft but do
operate substantial numbers of Air Force aircraft. 4
Even so, China’s regional preponderance is most dramatically affected in terms of Air Force
capability when EAS member states are considered as opposed to ASEAN+3 nations. China
has 40 per cent of the aircraft of ASEAN+3 Air Forces, but only 22 per cent of the EAS member
states total Air Force aircraft. Out of the EAS member states, China’s Air Force has less aircraft
than Russia’s, and India’s Air Force is over half the size of China’s. In contrast, China’s Air Force
is over three times larger than that of the next largest in ASEAN + 3, the Japan Air Self Defence
Force.
2 Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Navy Capabilities – Background and
Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, July 5, 2013, available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/
row/RL33153.pdf.
3 Manu Pubby, “Russian-Built Aircraft Carrier INS Vikramaditya Ready to Sail, Finally,” Indian Express, July
12, 2013, available at http://www.indianexpress.com/news/russianbuilt-aircraft-carrier-ins-vikramadityaready-to-sail-finally/1140744/.
4 In these graphs, “naval aviation aircraft” refers to aircraft under the operation of the country’s Navy. In the
case of New Zealand, the Defence White Paper lists five helicopters as under the maintenance of the Air Force
but the operation of the Navy. They have been listed here as naval aviation aircraft. Similarly, aircraft under
the command of the US Pacific Fleet are listed as naval aviation aircraft, although some may be maintained
by the US Air Force.
East Asia Summit Member States: Military Balance | 61