Agenda item 4 - MTFS (Final) Cab 070213 , item 9. PDF 1 MB

ANNEX 1.2 : COMMISSIONING INTENTIONS – ADULT SERVICES
Context
Adult social care has a current (2012/13) net budget of £147m, the single biggest area of
expenditure of the County Council. We support approximately 25,000 people who have a
disability, are vulnerable, or live with an age-related disorder, as well as commissioning services
aimed at addressing social care and health inequalities, promoting health and well being. We
work in partnership with our service users and carers, health, housing and the third sector to
maximise people’s potential for independence, meeting assessed need within a legal framework.
The overall performance of adult services is mixed. We support 24% more people in the
community than we did 5 years ago, with significant numbers of carers receiving a service too, but
we need to improve our use of technology (telecare and telehealth) and facilitate more personal
support plans and individual budgets.
Strategic Direction
Our strategic ambition is to support people to live independently. The national policy is about
“Putting People First” and to implement this locally means an increasing focus on community
support and involvement, early intervention, prevention and reablement services. As part of this,
and for those people who have on-going needs, we want to ensure we put each individual service
user in control of their care and support, offering choice, providing professional advice and
enabling their voice to be heard, with the ultimate aim of improving outcomes for people. We want
to reduce reliance on institutional care, create innovate alternatives and encourage the use of
universal services, recognising that there will always be a place for specialists too.
Needs Analysis
The number of older people aged 65+ in the county has been growing by an average of 1,500
people per year over the last 10 years or so. Projections suggest that this will double to an annual
increase of around 3,000 people on average in the short and medium term, increasing to 3,300
people in the longer term, as rising life expectancy and demographic impacts of two generations of
baby boomers take hold.
Significantly, the projected percentage increase of the older population is greater in
Gloucestershire than in England over the period 2010-2035. The County’s ageing demographic is
further underlined by the projected decline of its working-age population and the very modest
growth of its child population which contrasts with England where both age groups are forecast to
continue to increase over the same period.
In particular, the number of people aged 75 and over, the ages at which GCC adult services are
most likely to be required, is projected to increase by an annual average of 1,500 between 2010
and 2020, and by 2,300 between 2020 and 2035. The fastest rate of growth will be amongst those
aged 85 and older, most noticeably in the longer term.
The geographical distribution of older people is also expected to spread. In 2010, 41 wards in the
county contained at least 1,000 older people aged 65+. By 2015, the number of such wards could
grow to 60 (i.e. 4 in 10 wards), spreading across urban and rural areas of the county. An estimated
40% to 65% of the older population in these wards will be aged 75+.
The rising trend of older people aged 65+ living alone could also place extra pressure on care and
infrastructure provision.
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