Agenda item 4 - MTFS (Final) Cab 070213 , item 9. PDF 1 MB

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Arlingclose’s Economic and Interest Rate Forecast Appendix C Underlying Assumptions: • UK growth is unlikely to return to above trend for the foreseeable future. Q3 GDP was strong at 0.9% but this momentum is unlikely to be sustained in Q4 or in 2013. The rebalancing from public-sector driven consumption to private sector demand and investment is yet to manifest, and there is little sign of productivity growth. Further contraction in the Eurozone, including Germany’s powerful economy, and slower forecast growth in the emerging economies (Brazil/Mexico/India) are exacerbating the weakness. • Consumer Price Inflation has fallen to 2.7 % from a peak of 5.2%. Near term CPI is likely to be affected by volatility in commodity prices and its decrease towards the 2% target is expected to be slower than previously estimated. Real wage growth (i.e. after inflation) is forecast to remain weak. • The fiscal outlook for bringing down the structural deficit and stabilise debt levels remains very challenging. Weakened credibility of the UK reining its levels of debt poses a risk to the AAA status, but recent history (US, France) suggests this may not automatically result in a sell-off in gilts. • In the absence of large, unexpected decline in growth, QE is likely to remain on hold at £375bn for now. The availability of cheaper bank borrowing and subsequently for corporates through the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is a supporting factor. 89
• The US Federal Reserve’s shift in its rate guidance from a date-based indication to economic thresholds (6.5% unemployment, inflation 1 – 2 years out projected to remain below 2.5%, longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored) is likely to increase market uncertainty around the highly volatile US employment data releases. • The Eurozone is making slow headway which has curtailed some of the immediate risks although peripheral countries continue to struggle. Fully-fledged banking and fiscal union is still some years away. • In the US, the issues of spending cuts, reducing the budget deficit and raising the country’s debt ceiling remain unresolved. A failure to address these by March 2013 could lead to a similar showdown and risks a downgrade to the US sovereign credit rating by one or more agencies. • A reversal in market risk sentiment from current “risk on” to “risk off” could be triggered by economic and/or political events – impending Italian and German elections, US debt ceiling impasse, difficulty surrounding Cyprus’ bailout, and contagion returning the haunt the European peripheral nations – could inject renewed volatility into gilts and sovereign bonds. 90
Page 1 and 2:
Gloucestershire County Council Medi
Page 3 and 4:
7 The capital budget strategy refle
Page 5 and 6:
This will then provide a further £
Page 7 and 8:
The draft budget was also considere
Page 9 and 10:
for non Academy Schools. These amou
Page 11 and 12:
• Providing the basics - In the c
Page 13 and 14:
(1) The budget provides for contrac
Page 15 and 16:
Any increase in a school’s depriv
Page 17 and 18:
In the future there is a risk that
Page 19 and 20:
40 Council’s financial standing a
Page 21 and 22:
2014/15 2015/16 £m £m Budget 420.
Page 23 and 24:
Entry’ approval had been given, w
Page 25 and 26:
escheduling, and investments. • P
Page 27 and 28:
ANNEX 1.1 : COMMISSIONING INTENTION
Page 29 and 30:
Delivering Change Achieving improve
Page 31 and 32:
Currently an estimated 38,000 older
Page 33 and 34:
ANNEX 1.3: COMMISSIONING INTENTIONS
Page 35 and 36:
Looking Forward Some of the changes
Page 37 and 38:
Source LGA: From transition to tran
Page 39 and 40: The Council is ideally placed to ta
Page 50 and 51: Proposed Cost Increases 2013/14 - A
Page 52 and 53: Proposed Cost Reductions 2013/14 -
Page 54 and 55: Proposed cost reductions as part of
Page 56 and 57: Annex 4 Proposed Cost Reductions 20
Page 58 and 59: Forward Planning 2013/14 to 2015/16
Page 60 and 61: Revenue Outturn 2012/13 : Forecast
Page 62 and 63: • The Learning Disabilities Exter
Page 64 and 65: • Young people’s support: an un
Page 66 and 67: Reserve movements Balance at 31st M
Page 68 and 69: Academies. Such adjustments will be
Page 70 and 71: Scheme Name Actual Actual Forecast
Page 72 and 73: Annex 9 Capital Programme Prior Yea
Page 74 and 75: Scheme Name Prior Years 2011/12 £'
Page 76 and 77: Capital Programme Forecast - Decemb
Page 78 and 79: 1. Background 1.1 The Chartered Ins
Page 80 and 81: 5.3 Total borrowing requirement at
Page 82 and 83: 7.8 Council’s Banker - The Counci
Page 84 and 85: Appendix A EXISTING PORTFOLIO PROJE
Page 86 and 87: 4. Ratio of Financing Costs to Net
Page 88 and 89: 9. Adoption of the CIPFA Treasury M
Page 92 and 93: Specified Investments Appendix D Sp
Page 94 and 95: Councils Bank Account The Council b
Page 96 and 97: Notes: • This list could change i
Page 98 and 99: 3. The Local Authority Mortgage Sch
Page 100 and 101: ANNEX 11 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 2
Page 102 and 103: Risk Management Policy Statement Gl
Page 104 and 105: What are our Strategic Risk Managem
Page 106 and 107: Appendix 1 - Risk Management Accoun
Page 108 and 109: Staff/Other Stakeholders ‣ Mainta
Page 110: i http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_
show all

Agenda item 4 - MTFS (Final) Cab 070213 , item 9. PDF 1 MB

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?