The Green Line and the Security Fence:

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10 the “Biblical” areas (and only them) from our analysis of aggregate data, which is tantamount to excluding the GL settlements and Jerusalem (located at 3-5 km from the GL). This solves the problem of the direction of causation by making the reverse implausible: a move, say, from Haifa (40 km from GL) to Tel-Aviv (20 km to GL) hardly would be seen as the desire to live closer to historic Biblical places! Still, Jerusalem must be treated separately from the GL settlements, since it is already a modern city, host to large, high-tech industries. A high-tech worker would have no a priori preference to settle in Jerusalem, rather than in Tel-Aviv or Haifa. Therefore, we decided to keep Jerusalem in the aggregate data analysis as well and report on differences between the results that include it and exclude it. There might be an additional reason to exclude settlements beyond the GL, even in the analysis of the individual poll where we can control for religiosity. For those who live beyond the GL, there are two reasons to vote Right. One is significantly lower taxes vs. the rest of Israel and an opportunity to buy a house several times cheaper than inside the GL. 16 Israeli settlements also have enjoyed generous government financing for building public facilities, special access roads, and roads that bypass Palestinian villages, and industrial zones, in addition to the operation of schools and health clinics. This is a socalled “Quality-of-Life” factor which might be a reason even for non-religious settlers to vote Right, since the Extreme Left (“Peace Now”) since the 1990s has raised the question of abolishing tax and security advantages for settlers. 17 “Peace Now” is influential within
11 the Meretz Party, which was a part of the Leftist government coalition in 1992-1996 and 1999-2001. The Rightist government took the opposite stance. 18 The question is whether the “Quality-of-Life” factor belongs to the P-factor. If one wants to study the Fear (or rather “Fear-of-losing--life”) factor alone, since it is not obvious how to separate it effectively from the former, the only solution seems to be to proceed exactly as we did in the previous problem with direction of causation – to exclude the GL settlements from the analysis. In case the “Quality-of-Life” factor is included in the P- factor, the non-religious GL settlements might remain in the data. Actually, two sorts of analysis can emerge – excluding or including GL settlements. Arguably, the P-factor came into the limelight due to several terrorist suicide attacks in Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem on the eve of the 1996 elections, but remarkably, it remained underestimated until the 1999 elections, when the Left won by promising quick peace after a comparatively peaceful lullaby during Netanyahu’s tenure in 1996-99. When this promise failed, as a result of a new outbreak of violence in September 2000, the P-factor came to the fore in the 2001 and 2003 elections, when the Right won a sweeping victory. To mitigate the geographical flavor in the P-factor we introduced in parallel two geographical factors: Location by Sea and Distance to the Borders of Israel (further: DB). The first was measured as a dummy binary variable (1,0) and the second as the shortest distance to the closest border with one of four countries: Egypt, Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon. Both variables displayed a low significance for election results. This is consistent with the logic of Israeli politics. Both Right and Left take serious heed to the
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Page 41 and 42: 41 Masters degrees. We refer to the

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