The Green Line and the Security Fence:

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32 Category Variables B S.E. Wald Sig. Exp(B) Socio- Demography Cars_1999 Child_Family Child_Army Acad_Degree Age Gender Religiosity Years_in_Israel .290 -.044 -.052 -.006 .007 -.233 .322 .007 .094 .050 .113 .091 .007 .140 .093 .005 9.626 .801 .214 .004 1.023 2.783 12.136 1.909 .002 .371 .644 .949 .312 .095 .000 .167 1.337 .957 .949 .994 1.007 .792 1.380 1.007 Psychology DGL -.083 .009 89.267 .000 .920 Geography DB -.020 .006 12.151 .001 .980 Constant 1.392 .422 10.876 .001 4.023 Table 5. 1999 Elections; Individual Poll; Vote for the Right; 1,081 Respondents Adding the DGL variable in all three cases increased the result by about 7-10% – from 60% to 67-70%. Each time, this variable became significant at the *** level. The "odds ratio" (the Exp(B) in the tables) equal to (for example) 0.92 case in 1999, suggests diminution by 2% of the voters for Right for each km from the GL (since 0.92 = 0.48 / 0.52) which is remarkably consistent with the results of aggregate data analysis. Further, adding the Distance to the Border variable in all three elections increased the result by only a tiny 0.5-1%. The latter variable was significant at the ** or *** levels. Its coefficient, equal to -0.02 in all three elections, was 4.4 times smaller in absolute value than the one before the DGL in 1996, 4.1 times smaller in 1999, but only 3 times smaller in the 2001 elections. This means that the P-factor gradually fell from 1996 to 2001, in contrast to “security identified as a major issue before elections” (The Elections in Israel – 2001, 16, fig. 2), which shows a significant drop of security concerns in 1999 that rose anew in the 2001 elections.
33 Category Variables B S.E. Wald Sig. Exp(B) Socio- Demography Cars_2001 Child_Family Child_Army Acad_Degree Age Gender Religiosity Years_in_Israel .208 -.038 -.134 -.050 .013 -.242 .380 .001 .083 .049 .107 .088 .006 .134 .092 .005 6.268 .614 1.568 .316 4.859 3.248 17.281 .070 .012 .433 .211 .574 .028 .072 .000 .791 1.231 .963 .875 .952 1.014 .785 1.463 1.001 Psychology DGL -.065 .008 70.228 .000 .937 Geography DB -.022 .005 16.077 .001 .978 Constant 1.313 .397 10.916 .001 3.718 Table 6. 2001 Elections; Individual Poll; Vote for the Right; 1,120 Respondents Unfortunately, the data for the Ethnic variable (2-Sephardi, 1-Ashkenazi, 0-Arab) was incomplete. Some 350 Jewish voters did not identify themselves properly: many may have considered themselves as “mixed ethnic.” Hence, we dropped this variable from the regression analysis. The straightforward bivariate correlation for 770 valid cases shows a 0.1** coefficient between the Ethnic variable and each Vote variable. This, of course, means that Sephardim are more likely to vote Right. The addition of the Ethnic Background variable did not improve the final score significantly, only by about 1% each time. This seems strange at first glance; however, the same effect for individual polls was observed by Shamir and Arian (1999: Table 2) in their research on 1996 elections, where Ethnicity, which featured *** in the short (sociodemographic) list of variables, lost one * after adding so-called “issues” and lost another * after adding so-called “performances.” An even more striking effect was observed in the 1999 elections (The Elections in Israel-2001, Table 1.2), where in the most general
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Page 3 and 4: 3 increase in the importance of the
Page 5 and 6: 5 Goemans 2001), 2 the two-ballot s
Page 7 and 8: 7 Jewish Israeli population) forced
Page 9 and 10: 9 Since the 1993 Oslo Accords, the
Page 11 and 12: 11 the Meretz Party, which was a pa
Page 13 and 14: 13 1. The first issue is that the c
Page 15 and 16: 15 regression, since the sign and s
Page 17 and 18: 17 made up of small communities. In
Page 19 and 20: 19 Israeli population was divided i
Page 21 and 22: 21 80% 60% 40% Each city is represe
Page 23 and 24: 23 the fifth level. After adding so
Page 25 and 26: 25 At the fifth level there were ad
Page 27 and 28: 27 Analysis of the Results The fact
Page 29 and 30: 29 while statistical data from the
Page 31: 31 goodness of fit - the best is to
Page 35 and 36: 35 1. The aggregate data analysis s
Page 37 and 38: 37 to vote Right in Tel Aviv (20 km
Page 39 and 40: 39 1 This is the old approach in Is
Page 41 and 42: 41 Masters degrees. We refer to the

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