The Green Line and the Security Fence:

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6 Ehud Barak in 1999 and in 2001 were associated with the desire to make concessions to Palestinians and therefore with the Israeli “Left,” while their rivals, Binyamin Netanyahu in 1996 and 1999 and Ariel Sharon in 2001, opponents of the Oslo Accords, were associated with the Israeli “Right.” Therefore, the dependent variable can be treated as binary, which in turn, allows us to use a traditional, simpler regression model. 8 Looking back, say to 1965 and 1969, when “split-ticket voting” was carried out when a voter chose a party for Knesset and local council separately (Arian 1973, 183-6), one can also discern the results we advocate here – but those results went unnoticed. We will discuss this point later in the text. The analysis of the Israeli political spectrum that we present in this paper is not unique. After years of largely descriptive analysis, several authors carried out the multilevel regression analysis. Shamir and Arian (1999) performed regression analysis of the 1999 elections, using an individual poll of nearly 800 respondents. Debating the strong and weak aspects of preliminary polls, Shalev and Kis (2002) made regression analysis with aggregate data from the Israeli Statistical Bureau, similar to data we used in this paper. All of the above authors avoided treating the national (Jewish vs. Israeli Arab) factor because of some “technical” problems: in one case there were no trustworthy polls among Israeli Arabs; in another, they did not include all other relevant factors. The problems with data and the way we posed the problem (as a “psychological factor” within
7 Jewish Israeli population) forced us to avoid discussing the national factor as well. 9 We attempted to address it in the individual poll, though unsuccessfully. 1. Key Question and Innovations The key question was to find a mathematical way to describe the security factor such that the variable behind it must be independent of the major trio, ethnicity, religiosity, nationality, plus a social factor. Andersen and Yaish (2003) in their study introduced several control parameters, among them the ‘urban locality,’ a binary variable. It must be recognized immediately as inadequate for our purposes. It has a mixed content of geography and culture and therefore fails to represent either of them. Its inadequacy to represent “culture” is especially striking: small communities do not lack information when compared with cities; besides, many kibbutzim can compete culturally with cities. 10 In a more formal objection, one can say that an exact division between urban and rural areas is non-existent in Israel. Introducing the urban locality seems a dubious attempt to represent a standard ‘center-periphery’ division in a different way. 11 It is not a surprise that urban locality did not feature significantly in Andersen-Yaish’s regression model (2003). 12 Moreover, the sign of the coefficient before this variable (see ibid, 413, Table 3A) suggests that urban people prefer Rightist parties, which might be true for Jerusalem and Southern Tel Aviv, but is in direct contradiction to what we know about communities in Northern Tel Aviv and “red” (pro-Communist) Haifa. The failure of urban locality forces us to suggest that another, more refined set of parameters might be appropriate to comprehend Israeli reality.
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Page 3 and 4: 3 increase in the importance of the
Page 5: 5 Goemans 2001), 2 the two-ballot s
Page 9 and 10: 9 Since the 1993 Oslo Accords, the
Page 11 and 12: 11 the Meretz Party, which was a pa
Page 13 and 14: 13 1. The first issue is that the c
Page 15 and 16: 15 regression, since the sign and s
Page 17 and 18: 17 made up of small communities. In
Page 19 and 20: 19 Israeli population was divided i
Page 21 and 22: 21 80% 60% 40% Each city is represe
Page 23 and 24: 23 the fifth level. After adding so
Page 25 and 26: 25 At the fifth level there were ad
Page 27 and 28: 27 Analysis of the Results The fact
Page 29 and 30: 29 while statistical data from the
Page 31 and 32: 31 goodness of fit - the best is to
Page 33 and 34: 33 Category Variables B S.E. Wald S
Page 35 and 36: 35 1. The aggregate data analysis s
Page 37 and 38: 37 to vote Right in Tel Aviv (20 km
Page 39 and 40: 39 1 This is the old approach in Is
Page 41 and 42: 41 Masters degrees. We refer to the

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