The Green Line and the Security Fence:

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26 Category Variables I II III IV V Constant 100.52 82.278 51.516 56.857 62.208 AGE25_44 -1.004 -1.079 -.460 -.417 -.421 Demography AGE45_64 -1.554 -1.447 -.754 -.552 -.545 AGE65_74 -.233 .220 1.008 .461 .544 ASIA .479 .364 .302 .287 Origin AFRICA .477 .326 .227 .225 LATIN_AMER -1.308 -.880 -.996 -1.074 Religiosity PERSON1 -.264 -.539 -.568 PERSON7 1.749 1.238 1.179 POOR .117 .118 RICH -.138 -.135 Income CARS0 .174 .198 CARS1 .116 .142** CARS2 -.369 -.366 Psychology LOG_DGL -2.676 R-square .145 .419 .594 .700 .707 F-statistics 101 217 329 322 309 Dependent Variable: Netanyahu_99 Table 3. Pro-Netanyahu Vote in 1999 Elections – Five-level Model This time only the variable Cars_1 dropped in significance, while the overall picture is practically the same: all the variables have the expected signs and are highly significant. Again, F-statistics dropped at the fourth and fifth levels. Again, the DGL was *** significant, while the DB and Location by Sea were insignificant. The coefficient -2.6 before the DGL shows that Fear was slightly reduced: every 1 km away from the GL, the Right loses 2.6/DGL % of votes. The R-square of the model reached 0.7 with final F-statistic at 309. Adding for Ethnic Background the 16 countries of origin instead of continents does slightly improve R- square to 0.75, but again causes final F-statistics to drop from 309 to 202.
27 Analysis of the Results The fact that DB and Location by Sea are not significant might be interpreted in the following way. The “center-periphery” problem might be considered non-existent in Israel; this confirms the results of Andersen and Yaish (2003). There is no “periphery” in Israel from a political point of view. Indeed, the Galilee (motherland of “periphery” kibbutzim), “red” Haifa, and Northern Tel Aviv all voted for the Left, suggesting a conclusive sample from the different regions of the country. The fact that the DB is not significant shows that Israeli borders are not considered dangerous by residents. This claim is supported by a separate regression analysis for communities located within 20 km of the border, where all three variables feature as insignificant. While this claim seems obvious with respect to borders with Egypt and Jordan, the “calm” near the two other borders is remarkable. Though there was no peace with Syria and Lebanon, in the eyes of the local residents, the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights and Southern Lebanon (until 2000) provided a reliable buffer against a military threat. We strongly expect to see a rise in the significance of DB in the 2001 elections, after Israel retreated from Lebanon. The fact that the same model works better for the 1999 than for the 1996 elections comes as a surprise. Between 1996 and 1999, large numbers of new immigrants continued to arrive in Israel, mainly from the former Soviet Union and Latin America, transforming the ethnic background of some communities. 33 In addition, this was the peak of a shortlived economic boom, which changed income distribution in Israel in a volatile manner. 34
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Page 39 and 40: 39 1 This is the old approach in Is
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