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The Green Line and the Security Fence:

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<strong>The</strong>re remain 1,120 people between 22 <strong>and</strong> 86 years old who cast <strong>the</strong>ir vote at least once.<br />

Rounded to <strong>the</strong> nearest integer for mean Age <strong>and</strong> median Age were: for all 1,120: 44/46y;<br />

for those 1,082 older than 23y: 45/47y; for those 947 older than 26y: 48/49y. 36 Hence,<br />

after shifting back by 9, 6, <strong>and</strong> 4 years respectively, <strong>the</strong> true mean/median Ages were:<br />

39/40y in 1996, 39/41y in 1999 <strong>and</strong> 40/42y in 2001. Israeli Interior Ministry statistics<br />

show a median 28.5y, but over <strong>the</strong> total population, including <strong>the</strong> youngsters. Those<br />

younger than 19 years old constituted about 37% of <strong>the</strong> total. Recalculating <strong>the</strong> averages<br />

for eligible voters (18 years old <strong>and</strong> older), we found <strong>the</strong> median Age for <strong>the</strong> total falls in<br />

<strong>the</strong> middle of <strong>the</strong> 35-44y old group, a good agreement with <strong>the</strong> data from our poll.<br />

Again, as in <strong>the</strong> aggregate data analysis, <strong>the</strong> DGL variable was measured as <strong>the</strong> distance<br />

to <strong>the</strong> closest point from Judea, Samaria, or Gaza. Since 90% of those participants living<br />

within <strong>the</strong> GL were from <strong>the</strong> city of Ariel, <strong>and</strong> since <strong>the</strong> latter is not considered to be a<br />

religious settlement, we decided to keep all of <strong>the</strong> entries in <strong>the</strong> analysis, setting <strong>the</strong> DGL<br />

for <strong>the</strong>m as zero. <strong>The</strong> negative feature of <strong>the</strong> poll data was that DGL variable correlated<br />

with practically all o<strong>the</strong>r variables: Distance to <strong>the</strong> Border, Location at Sea, Religion,<br />

etc., at <strong>the</strong> ** level. <strong>The</strong>refore, we could not avoid <strong>the</strong> multicolinearity problem. Apart<br />

from that, <strong>the</strong> results in all three elections show strongly <strong>the</strong> importance of <strong>the</strong> P-factor,<br />

<strong>and</strong>, to lesser degree, <strong>the</strong> geographical variable.<br />

Since <strong>the</strong> dependent variables Vote96, Vote99, <strong>and</strong> Vote01 are binary (1-Right, 0-Left),<br />

we ran a binary logistic regression. <strong>The</strong>re are many ways, however, to discuss its

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