The Green Line and the Security Fence:

36
10. Major Conclusions: the Role of the P-factor
Summarizing, we addressed and partially solved several interesting methodological
problems, which for many years have been beyond the grasp of practitioners in the field.
The variable we introduced, the DGL, appears to capture the bias toward the Right of a
Jewish Israeli voter who resides near the GL, due to the obvious threat coming from
behind the GL. Among Palestinians, the level of (hypothetical) support for different types of
armed attacks remains high: 92% for attacks against soldiers, 92% for attacks against settlers, and
58% for attacks against civilians inside Israel. 38
1. According to the aggregate data analysis for the 1996 and 1999 elections, the
psychological factor, as measured by the DGL, played a significant role in the outcome of
the 1996 and 1999 Israeli elections, though less significant compared with ethnic,
religious, and social factors. The quantitative claim is that for every 1 km away from the
GL inside Israeli territory, the Right loses 3/DGL% of the vote. A more refined
measurement should be found for cities inside the GL; for example, to the closest
dangerous place, or perhaps to the Security Fence.
According to the individual poll, the P-factor was *** significant in all three elections.
The "odds ratio" speaks of Right losing 2% of the vote every additional kilometer farther
from the GL. It was the most Wald-significant factor, several times more Waldsignificant
than the geographical factor, Distance to the Border, and even more Waldsignificant
than another well-known *** factor, Religiosity, though it is lower than the
latter in intensity. A scientist with the same income and color of yarmulke is more likely