The Green Line and the Security Fence:

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20 was never considered earlier! To illustrate this point by simple means, we prepared Table 1 that displays the pro-Right vote in 15 major Israeli cities, where only electoral areas with a Jewish population higher than 90% were counted. 29 The 15 cities were lined up according to their distance from the GL. All of the settlements beyond the GL were assigned zero DGL. 30 “# Stat areas” in Table 1 means the number of electoral areas within a city, or, in effect, the relative size of the city. City Green line Jeru salem Petah Tikwa Ashk elon Bnei Brak Neta nia Ramat Gan Beer Sheba Rishon Lezion Reho vot Tel Aviv Hol on Bat Yam Ash dod Hai fa #Stat_areas 82 143 44 20 32 46 41 41 41 26 129 46 39 36 59 DGL 0 3.2 9 10.8 14.3 15 15.6 17 17.3 17.3 20 20 23.5 29.6 39 Loc_by_Sea No No No Yes No Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Dist_Border 32 62 49 65 67 65 49 69 56.7 72 69 74 69 31 1996 87.7 71 57.6 61 88 60.5 48.5 62 51 50 44 51 55.5 66.5 42 1999 79.4 65 50.5 60 87 54 39 55 42 43.4 36 44 48 58 33 Table 1. Pro-Netanyahu Vote vs. Psychological and Geographical Factors in 15 Major Israeli Localities in 1996 Elections At a glance, one can see extremely strong support for the Right near the GL and that it gradually decreases going away from it. Of course, for those living in the settlements beyond the GL, a vote for the Right was the obvious choice. Some irregularities versus linear behavior also can be explained in light of what we learned earlier. The extremely high percentage of pro-Right voters in Bnei Brak (15 km) could be explained by a disproportional number of haredim (religious Jewish population). Another sharp rise in percent of pro-Right voters in comparatively distant Ashdod (29 km) can be explained by the ethnic component: Russian and Moroccan Jews comprise more than two-thirds of its population. The results are shown as a graph (Figure 1):
21 80% 60% 40% Each city is represented by a pair of dots of the same color: dark for 1996 and bright for 1999. Color signifies location: Blue: sea Brown: mountain Green: valley Yellow: desert Black: Bnei Brak Dashed line: regression 1996 with slope –0.3 Dotted line: regression 1999 with slope –0.3 0 20 40 ……………..20km………………..…………... 40km Figure 1. Vote pro-Netanyahu vs. Distance to the Green Line for 15 Major Localities Figure 1 is very telling. Drawing a straight line through Haifa (DGL = 40km, Right vote in 1996 = 42%) and the center point of Greater Tel-Aviv 31 (DGL = 20km, Right vote in 1996 = 48%) one can see the downward slope of about 3% per every 10km. A visible jump upward of Jerusalem and the settlements near the GL are mainly due to the religiosity factor, as we explained earlier, and we can even measure its intensity in Jerusalem by comparing a projected 53% vs. 71% de facto. Figure 1 also shows that in the 1999 elections, Netanyahu almost uniformly received 6% to 8% fewer votes than in 1996, which confirms the existence of a firm slope that depends on the DGL. This encourages performing the multivariable Linear Regression analysis.
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Page 3 and 4: 3 increase in the importance of the
Page 5 and 6: 5 Goemans 2001), 2 the two-ballot s
Page 7 and 8: 7 Jewish Israeli population) forced
Page 9 and 10: 9 Since the 1993 Oslo Accords, the
Page 11 and 12: 11 the Meretz Party, which was a pa
Page 13 and 14: 13 1. The first issue is that the c
Page 15 and 16: 15 regression, since the sign and s
Page 17 and 18: 17 made up of small communities. In
Page 19: 19 Israeli population was divided i
Page 23 and 24: 23 the fifth level. After adding so
Page 25 and 26: 25 At the fifth level there were ad
Page 27 and 28: 27 Analysis of the Results The fact
Page 29 and 30: 29 while statistical data from the
Page 31 and 32: 31 goodness of fit - the best is to
Page 33 and 34: 33 Category Variables B S.E. Wald S
Page 35 and 36: 35 1. The aggregate data analysis s
Page 37 and 38: 37 to vote Right in Tel Aviv (20 km
Page 39 and 40: 39 1 This is the old approach in Is
Page 41 and 42: 41 Masters degrees. We refer to the

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