School Community Integration Pilot Project - Department of Education

A comparative analysis of education expenditure in Eastern Cape schools – November 2004
6.1. Scenario 1: No Combined Schools or Small Secondary Schools
This scenario simulates the impact of a three year phased introduction of the more
conventional grade R-7 primary school and grade 8-12 secondary school system,
coupled with the closure of small secondary schools of that cannot reach an
enrolment of 300 or more. This system was described in section 5.1 above. It is
important to note that small primary schools are not closed, but their LER and LCR
are targeted to rise to the space and class norms set out. The impact of these
structural changes is that the average LER would rise slightly from 32.2 to 33.4 and
the LCR would fall slightly from 39.0 to 38.4 over the three year period. Permanent
educator numbers fall gradually from the current in post numbers of 64,845 in
2004/05 to a filled establishment of 62,505 in 2007/08.
The impact of this scenario on the public school budget is set out in the table and
charts below. It is a relatively favourable scenario, with both the size and relative
proportion of the non-personnel non-capital budget rising to R943 million by 2007/08
and stabilizing at between 8% to 9% of the total public school budget. At R450,
NPNC per capita rises to close to the national target by 2006/07. Capital expenditure
would stabilise at R306 million in 2007/08, close to the figure needed to eliminate the
backlog over a ten year period.
Table 28: Projected public school expenditure – no combined schools and no
small secondary schools, R million
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Educator numbers 64,845 64,065 63,285 62,505
Personnel - R million 8,525 8,972 9,434 9,881
Non-personnel non-capital - R million 504 780 946 943
NPNC per capita 242 375 455 453
Transfers 26 27 26 26
Capital 312 319 307 306
TOTAL BUDGET/EXPENDITURE 9,610 10,473 11,168 11,609
Percentage personnel 89% 86% 84% 85%
Percentage non-personnel 5% 7% 8% 8%
Growth rate in personnel 5% 5% 5%
Growth rate in non-personnel 55% 21% 0%
Chart 2: Educator numbers – no combined schools and no small secondary
schools
Educator numbers
65,500
65,000
64,500
64,000
63,500
63,000
62,500
62,000
61,500
61,000
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
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