School Community Integration Pilot Project - Department of Education

A comparative analysis of education expenditure in Eastern Cape schools – November 2004
6.3. Scenario 3: A New Establishment Of 61,431
This scenario simulates the impact of a three year phased introduction of the
proposed 2005 establishment of 61,431. The average LER would rise from 32.2 to
35.0 over the three year period. There would therefore be a similar, although greater
impact, to the structural changes proposed in scenario 1. The principal difference
between the two scenarios is structural. Without changes in the structure of the
school system an average LER of 35:1 would lead to a significantly lower LER in
small schools and a correspondingly higher LER, especially in primary schools. This
is due to the distribution inherent in the post provisioning model towards small
schools and secondary schools which have a greater number of learning areas.
Permanent educator numbers fall gradually from the current in post numbers of
64,845 in 2004/05 to a filled establishment of 61,431 in 2007/08.
The impact of this scenario on the public school budget is set out in the table and
charts below. It is a favourable scenario, with both the size and relative proportion of
the non-personnel non-capital budget rising to R1,063 million by 2007/08 and to 10%
of the total public school budget. By 2007/08 NPNC per capita would have risen
above the NSSF target of R500 per learner. Capital expenditure would rise to R345
million by 2007/08, sufficient to eliminate the backlogs over ten years.
Table 29: Projected public school expenditure – new establishment of 61,431,
R million
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Educator numbers 64,845 63,707 62,569 61,431
Personnel - R million 8,525 8,924 9,331 9,718
Non-personnel non-capital - R million 504 814 1,022 1,063
NPNC per capita 242 391 491 511
Transfers 26 28 28 29
Capital 312 333 332 345
TOTAL BUDGET/EXPENDITURE 9,610 10,489 11,205 11,667
Percentage personnel 89% 85% 83% 83%
Percentage non-personnel 5% 8% 9% 9%
Growth rate in personnel 5% 5% 4%
Growth rate in non-personnel 62% 26% 4%
Chart 10: Educator numbers – new establishment of 61,431
Educator numbers
66,000
65,000
64,000
63,000
62,000
61,000
60,000
59,000
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
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