School Community Integration Pilot Project - Department of Education

A comparative analysis of education expenditure in Eastern Cape schools – November 2004
6.2. Scenario 2: The Current Establishment Of 67,074
This scenario simulates the impact of a three year phased introduction of the 2004
agreed establishment of 67,074, to which person to post matching is currently being
completed. The average LER would fall from 32.2 to 31.0 over the three year period.
Permanent educator numbers rise gradually from the current in post numbers of
64,845 in 2004/05 to a filled establishment of 67,124 in 2007/08.
The impact of this scenario on the public school budget is set out in the table and
charts below. It would be a damaging scenario for education over the medium term,
with both the size and relative proportion of the non-personnel non-capital budget
falling after 2005/06 to R429 million by 2007/08, 4% of the total public school budget.
Such a non-personnel non-capital budget would be completely insufficient to support
quality education in the classroom through adequate provision of learner materials.
NPNC per capita would fall to an unacceptable R206. Capital expenditure would fall
to R139 million, insufficient to eliminate the backlog over an acceptable period.
Table 29: Projected public school expenditure – current establishment of
67,074, R million
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Educator numbers 64,845 65,588 67,074 67,074
Personnel - R million 8,525 9,177 9,977 10,576
Non-personnel non-capital - R million 504 638 544 429
NPNC per capita 242 307 262 206
Transfers 26 22 15 12
Capital 312 261 177 139
TOTAL BUDGET/EXPENDITURE 9,610 10,405 10,975 11,362
Percentage personnel 89% 88% 91% 93%
Percentage non-personnel 5% 6% 5% 4%
Growth rate in personnel 8% 9% 6%
Growth rate in non-personnel 27% -15% -21%
Chart 6: Educator numbers – current establishment of 67,074
Educator numbers
67,500
67,000
66,500
66,000
65,500
65,000
64,500
64,000
63,500
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
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