School Community Integration Pilot Project - Department of Education

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A comparative analysis of education expenditure in Eastern Cape schools – November 2004 6.3. Scenario 3: A New Establishment Of 61,431 This scenario simulates the impact of a three year phased introduction of the proposed 2005 establishment of 61,431. The average LER would rise from 32.2 to 35.0 over the three year period. There would therefore be a similar, although greater impact, to the structural changes proposed in scenario 1. The principal difference between the two scenarios is structural. Without changes in the structure of the school system an average LER of 35:1 would lead to a significantly lower LER in small schools and a correspondingly higher LER, especially in primary schools. This is due to the distribution inherent in the post provisioning model towards small schools and secondary schools which have a greater number of learning areas. Permanent educator numbers fall gradually from the current in post numbers of 64,845 in 2004/05 to a filled establishment of 61,431 in 2007/08. The impact of this scenario on the public school budget is set out in the table and charts below. It is a favourable scenario, with both the size and relative proportion of the non-personnel non-capital budget rising to R1,063 million by 2007/08 and to 10% of the total public school budget. By 2007/08 NPNC per capita would have risen above the NSSF target of R500 per learner. Capital expenditure would rise to R345 million by 2007/08, sufficient to eliminate the backlogs over ten years. Table 29: Projected public school expenditure – new establishment of 61,431, R million 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Educator numbers 64,845 63,707 62,569 61,431 Personnel - R million 8,525 8,924 9,331 9,718 Non-personnel non-capital - R million 504 814 1,022 1,063 NPNC per capita 242 391 491 511 Transfers 26 28 28 29 Capital 312 333 332 345 TOTAL BUDGET/EXPENDITURE 9,610 10,489 11,205 11,667 Percentage personnel 89% 85% 83% 83% Percentage non-personnel 5% 8% 9% 9% Growth rate in personnel 5% 5% 4% Growth rate in non-personnel 62% 26% 4% Chart 10: Educator numbers – new establishment of 61,431 Educator numbers 66,000 65,000 64,000 63,000 62,000 61,000 60,000 59,000 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 46
A comparative analysis of education expenditure in Eastern Cape schools – November 2004 Chart 11: Percentage of the public school budget on personnel – new establishment of 61,431 Percentage personnel 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Chart 12: Percentage of the public school budget on non-personnel noncapital – new establishment of 61,431 Percentage non-personnel 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Chart 13: Percentage of the public school budget on non-personnel noncapital – new establishment of 61,431 NPNC per capita 600 500 400 391 491 511 300 200 242 100 0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 47
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Province of the EASTERN CAPE DEPART
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CONTENTS SUMMARY i 1. INTRODUCTION
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A comparative analysis of education
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A comparative analysis of education
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School Community Integration Pilot Project - Department of Education

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