WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

Figure 5-1 summarizes estimated trends of energy use over time as per cent of the reference
year, for different types of rail services, with all technologies aggregated in combination. For
electric trains higher speeds are included; for diesel trains speeds are assumed to be constant
over time.
2050 2025 2009 reference
High speed
67.9%
80.7%
100.0%
Intercity &
Regional electric
53.8%
72.3%
100.0%
Intercity &
Regional diesel
49.3%
69.6%
100.0%
Local city
45.8%
67.5%
100.0%
Figure 5-1
Trends in specific energy use (per passenger-km) over time for different types
of rail passenger services (new trains).
All technologies and influence of higher speeds are aggregated.
All types of rail passenger transport – from ‘High-speed trains’ to ‘Local city trains’ - are
competing with road transport, i.e. cars and buses. Air transport (in the range 300 - 1000 km) is
mainly competing with ‘High-speed trains’ and to some extent with fast intercity trains (i.e.
part of the ‘Intercity or regional’ segment). To compare with road and air transport respectively
energy and GHG characteristics for the rail mode is therefore divided in two tables, where
- Table 5-3a summarizes energy use and the resulting GHG emissions aggregated and
weighted over intercity, regional and city rail services, for comparison mainly with
road transport. For diesel trains only the results of combinations are presented;
- Table 5-3b summarizes energy use and the resulting GHG emissions for high-speed
rail, for comparison also with air transport.
Estimated lower (LB) and upper (UB) bounds are also indicated.
Inter-rail mode shift (i.e. between different types of rail services) is not considered in the
aggregated estimations in Figure 5-1, i.e. the percentage share in passenger-km is as for the
reference trains according to Table 2-1. In reality a shift from ‘Intercity or regional’ trains to
‘High-speed trains’ is anticipated. However, as the estimated future energy use and GHG
content (per passenger-km) only have a modest difference for these two types of trains, an
internal mode-shift will only have a modest influence (likely less than 5 %) on the total
average, although toward reduced emissions. Also, an internal mode shift from diesel to
electric trains is anticipated, although uncertain to what degree. However, as diesel trains have
just a minor market share today (about 12 %), such a limited mode shift will also only have a
minor, however positive, influence on the average GHG emissions from rail operations. The
assumed two mode shifts will both contribute to reduced GHG emissions and can be considered
as an extra margin in the estimated improvements.
Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 20