WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

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5.4 Scalability In this section technology-induced limits are considered with regard to the scalability, i.e. potential market share in EU-27. No limits with regard to the supply of technology at a sufficiently fast rate are considered. The percentage market shares are approximate and should be seen as a rough estimate. For most technologies there is a continuum with regard to the degree they are applied. Further, what is – for example – considered as “low air drag” is dependent on what type of train this measure is applied to; for a ‘High-speed train’ the targets are very high, while for an ‘Intercity or regional train’ the targets are lower, and for a ‘Local city train’ still more modest. Today’s high-speed trains have lower air drag than the ‘Local city trains’ are expected to have by 2050, at the same speed. In the example of “low-drag” technology the market share is estimated to be approximately 75 % as this is the sum of market shares for the rail operations where higher targets can be motivated (i.e. slow trains are excluded). This example shows that no exact definition of scalability is possible. However, it is anticipated that the different technologies are implemented to approximately the same amount (± 1/5) as shown in Table 3-1 in Section 3.5. Table 5-5 Scalability Characteristics, i.e. maximum possible market share by 2050. The table refers to the fraction of the market (in passenger-km) in which it could be motivated. Percent EU-27 Market Most Likely LB UB PA Low drag 75 50 90 PB Low mass 30 15 50 PC Energy recovery 90 70 100 PD Space efficient 75 40 80 PE Modular short train 20 10 40 PF Eco driving 95 80 100 PG Dual mode 5 2 10 PH Bio fuels 5 1 12 PI Electrification 6 4 10 PJ Low-GHG electric power 80 50 90 Higher speed 85 85 85 Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 30
5.5 Social acceptability Table 5-6 Social acceptability Rates from ‒ ‒ “unacceptable adverse effect” to + + “significant benefits”; 0 being “comparable to reference system”. Values within (parentheses) indicate that counter-measures are expected to be taken in order to produce a neutral outcome. Social equity implications Generation within EU of jobs Passenger safety Noise Privacy Ethical issues PA Low drag 0 + 0 0 (+) 0 + PB Low mass 0 + 0 0 (+) 0 + PC Energy recovery 0 0 0 0 0 ++ PD Space efficient 0 + 0 0 - ++ PE Modular short train 0 0 0 + 0 + PF Eco-driving 0 0 0 0 0 ++ PG Dual mode 0 + 0 0 (+) 0 + PH Bio fuels -to + 0 to + 0 0 0 - to + PI Electrification 0 + 0 0 (+) 0 + PJ Low-GHG electric power - to 0 0 0 0 0 0 to + Higher speed 0 0 0 (-) 0 (-) 0 0 (-) Comments - Most technologies and measures are neutral or not far from neutral with respect to social acceptability, at least after that counter-measures have been taken. - All technologies that contribute to the competitiveness of the European rail industry (in this case: suppliers of rail vehicles and infrastructure in relation to non-EU suppliers) are assumed to be positive for job creation or at least job survival. - Technologies that contribute to reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) have an inherent positive ethical value. Regarding bio fuels however this is uncertain, due to possible conflicts with land use and food production; see WP4 report. - In a narrow sense higher speed contributes to higher GHG emissions because of higher energy use, for the same type of train. However, the historical trend is that trains are adapted to the intended use, so higher speeds will force a faster and more ambitious development of energy-saving features, in particular low air drag. Moreover, if higher train speeds contribute to a higher competitiveness of rail operations, and these ‘higher speed’ operations have comparative benefits from a GHG point of view, the ‘Higher speed’ factor would be even more positive. Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 31
Page 1 and 2: Technology Opportunities and Strate
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND
Page 5 and 6: ABSTRACT In Stage 1 of the EU/FP7-f
Page 7 and 8: 1 INTRODUCTION Rail passenger trans
Page 9 and 10: Table 2-1 Reference characteristics
Page 11 and 12: improvements of the rail infrastruc
Page 13 and 14: PD. Space-efficient train According
Page 15 and 16: PJ. Low-GHG electric power Electric
Page 17 and 18: speeds in the range of 220-250 km/h
Page 19 and 20: It should be noted that it is not f
Page 21 and 22: The second issue that may be troubl
Page 23 and 24: 5.2 Energy and GHG characteristics
Page 25 and 26: In most cases it is assumed that th
Page 27 and 28: 2050 2025 2009 reference Low drag 1
Page 29 and 30: Table 5-4a Cost characteristics, ag
Page 31 and 32: Table 5-4b Cost characteristics for
Page 33: Summary and comments - Some of the
Page 37 and 38: Comment - Most technologies and mea
Page 39 and 40: PF Eco-driving With an estimated av
Page 41 and 42: Combination of measures The combina
Page 43: REFERENCES Andersson E, Lukaszewicz

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