WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

5.4 Scalability
In this section technology-induced limits are considered with regard to the scalability, i.e.
potential market share in EU-27. No limits with regard to the supply of technology at a
sufficiently fast rate are considered.
The percentage market shares are approximate and should be seen as a rough estimate. For
most technologies there is a continuum with regard to the degree they are applied. Further,
what is – for example – considered as “low air drag” is dependent on what type of train this
measure is applied to; for a ‘High-speed train’ the targets are very high, while for an ‘Intercity
or regional train’ the targets are lower, and for a ‘Local city train’ still more modest. Today’s
high-speed trains have lower air drag than the ‘Local city trains’ are expected to have by 2050,
at the same speed. In the example of “low-drag” technology the market share is estimated to be
approximately 75 % as this is the sum of market shares for the rail operations where higher
targets can be motivated (i.e. slow trains are excluded). This example shows that no exact
definition of scalability is possible.
However, it is anticipated that the different technologies are implemented to approximately the
same amount (± 1/5) as shown in Table 3-1 in Section 3.5.
Table 5-5 Scalability Characteristics, i.e. maximum possible market share by 2050.
The table refers to the fraction of the market (in passenger-km) in which it
could be motivated.
Percent EU-27 Market
Most Likely LB UB
PA Low drag 75 50 90
PB Low mass 30 15 50
PC Energy recovery 90 70 100
PD Space efficient 75 40 80
PE Modular short train 20 10 40
PF Eco driving 95 80 100
PG Dual mode 5 2 10
PH Bio fuels 5 1 12
PI Electrification 6 4 10
PJ Low-GHG electric power 80 50 90
Higher speed 85 85 85
Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 30