WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

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Figure 5-1 summarizes estimated trends of energy use over time as per cent of the reference year, for different types of rail services, with all technologies aggregated in combination. For electric trains higher speeds are included; for diesel trains speeds are assumed to be constant over time. 2050 2025 2009 reference High speed 67.9% 80.7% 100.0% Intercity & Regional electric 53.8% 72.3% 100.0% Intercity & Regional diesel 49.3% 69.6% 100.0% Local city 45.8% 67.5% 100.0% Figure 5-1 Trends in specific energy use (per passenger-km) over time for different types of rail passenger services (new trains). All technologies and influence of higher speeds are aggregated. All types of rail passenger transport – from ‘High-speed trains’ to ‘Local city trains’ - are competing with road transport, i.e. cars and buses. Air transport (in the range 300 - 1000 km) is mainly competing with ‘High-speed trains’ and to some extent with fast intercity trains (i.e. part of the ‘Intercity or regional’ segment). To compare with road and air transport respectively energy and GHG characteristics for the rail mode is therefore divided in two tables, where - Table 5-3a summarizes energy use and the resulting GHG emissions aggregated and weighted over intercity, regional and city rail services, for comparison mainly with road transport. For diesel trains only the results of combinations are presented; - Table 5-3b summarizes energy use and the resulting GHG emissions for high-speed rail, for comparison also with air transport. Estimated lower (LB) and upper (UB) bounds are also indicated. Inter-rail mode shift (i.e. between different types of rail services) is not considered in the aggregated estimations in Figure 5-1, i.e. the percentage share in passenger-km is as for the reference trains according to Table 2-1. In reality a shift from ‘Intercity or regional’ trains to ‘High-speed trains’ is anticipated. However, as the estimated future energy use and GHG content (per passenger-km) only have a modest difference for these two types of trains, an internal mode-shift will only have a modest influence (likely less than 5 %) on the total average, although toward reduced emissions. Also, an internal mode shift from diesel to electric trains is anticipated, although uncertain to what degree. However, as diesel trains have just a minor market share today (about 12 %), such a limited mode shift will also only have a minor, however positive, influence on the average GHG emissions from rail operations. The assumed two mode shifts will both contribute to reduced GHG emissions and can be considered as an extra margin in the estimated improvements. Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 20
In most cases it is assumed that the GHG content of the electricity mix is as in 2009 (128 gCO 2 -eq per MJ el), except for scenario 8, where it is assumed to be reduced by 80 % by 2050. Scenario 8 is just an example, as the GHG content of electricity is a scenario variable of Stage 2 of Tosca. GHG emissions from diesel trains are direct emissions (75 gCO 2 -eq per MJ fuel), assumed to use fossil fuels only. Table 5-3a Energy use and GHG emissions (per passenger-km) by technology, as an average over intercity, regional and city passenger trains, estimated for new trains by 2050 compared with reference trains, at public grid or fuel tank. Most likely Energy Use (MJ / pass-km) LB UB GHG Emissions (g CO 2 -eq / pass-km) Most likely Reference electric trains (2009) 0.368 47 1. PA Low-drag 0.334 0.32 0.35 43 41 45 2. PB Low-mass 0.343 0.33 0.36 44 42 46 3. PC Energy recovery 0.313 0.29 0.33 40 37 41 4. PD Space efficiency 0.314 0.30 0.34 40 38 42 5. PF Eco-driving 0.310 0.29 0.33 40 37 41 6. Pcomb electric (incl. incremental) 0.157 0.13 0.19 20 17 24 7. Pcomb HS: As (6) + higher speed 0.187 0.16 0.23 24 20 29 8. As 7. + low-GHG electric mix 0.187 0.16 0.23 5 4 6 a LB UB Reference diesel train (2009) 0.75 54 9. Pcomb diesel 0.37 0.34 0.43 27 25 32 a With the GHG content of average electricity reduced by 60 % (instead of 80 % as assumed tentatively) the resulting GHG emissions are estimated to 8–11 gCO 2 -eq per net-tonne-km. The different scenarios presented in TOSCA WP6 are approximately within the range of 60–80 % reduction. Note that diesel trains by 2050 in Table 5-3a seem to be almost as good as the average electric train, assuming that GHG content of electricity is the same as in 2009. This will however not be the case if the average carbon content of European electricity is reduced. Another important aspect is that the average speed of electric trains by 2050 is 60 % higher than for diesel trains, which makes such a comparison inappropriate. Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 21
Page 1 and 2: Technology Opportunities and Strate
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND
Page 5 and 6: ABSTRACT In Stage 1 of the EU/FP7-f
Page 7 and 8: 1 INTRODUCTION Rail passenger trans
Page 9 and 10: Table 2-1 Reference characteristics
Page 11 and 12: improvements of the rail infrastruc
Page 13 and 14: PD. Space-efficient train According
Page 15 and 16: PJ. Low-GHG electric power Electric
Page 17 and 18: speeds in the range of 220-250 km/h
Page 19 and 20: It should be noted that it is not f
Page 21 and 22: The second issue that may be troubl
Page 23: 5.2 Energy and GHG characteristics
Page 27 and 28: 2050 2025 2009 reference Low drag 1
Page 29 and 30: Table 5-4a Cost characteristics, ag
Page 31 and 32: Table 5-4b Cost characteristics for
Page 33 and 34: Summary and comments - Some of the
Page 35 and 36: 5.5 Social acceptability Table 5-6
Page 37 and 38: Comment - Most technologies and mea
Page 39 and 40: PF Eco-driving With an estimated av
Page 41 and 42: Combination of measures The combina
Page 43: REFERENCES Andersson E, Lukaszewicz

WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

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