WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

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Cost characteristics over time, aggregated over all types of electrical trains, are presented graphically in Figure 5-4. 2050 2025 2009 reference Low drag Low mass Energy recovery Space efficiency Eco drive All comb + incremental All comb + Higher speed 100% 101% 101% 100% 100% 101% 100% 99% 98% 100% 95% 91% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 90% 100% 93% 89% Figure 5-4 Estimated trends in operating costs (excl. energy cost) by technology over time, including combinations and higher speeds, aggregated and weighted over all types of electric rail passenger services. Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 26
Table 5-4b Cost characteristics for high-speed train services (electric), as estimated by 2050, compared with reference train (2009). Note: In this table energy cost is excluded from operating cost, but is indicated as the expected amount of energy consumption per passenger-km (pkm). Sales price (MEUR / train unit) Estimated Operating cost d (EUR / pass-km) Variation Estimated Variation Energy e (MJ /pkm) Most likely Reference high-speed train a 28 ±3 0.063 ±0.010 0.243 1. PA Low-drag b 28.5 ±3.5 0.064 b ±0.010 0.203 2. PB Low-mass --- --- --- --- --- 3. PC Energy recovery 28 ±3 0.063 ±0.010 0.236 4. PD Space efficiency 24.5 c ±3 0.058 ±0.010 0.213 5. PF Eco-driving 28.1 ±3 0.062 ±0.010 0.220 6. Pcomb electric + incremental 25 ±3.5 0.058 ±0.011 0.126 7. Pcomb HS: (6) + higher speed 28 ±4 0.057 ±0.011 0.165 a At the reference year high-speed trains is estimated to have a market share of 20 % on the rail passenger market; are however anticipated to increase until 2050. b For high-speed trains it is assumed that a ‘Low-drag’ train will have 3 % less number seats due to longer front and tail and also 2 % higher price than the reference train. c Sales price recalculated for the equivalent number of seats. See note c) of Table 5-2. d Operating costs include capital, maintenance, crew, track & station & dispatch, train formation, sales and administration. Capital cost excludes profit margins. e Energy intake to railway’s electric supply system, from public grid. At the reference year 2009, the average cost of electric energy in EU-27 (taken from power grid) is 0.091 EUR /kWh or 0.025 EUR /MJ, taxes excluded. Sales price evolution over time Rail passenger vehicles are usually developed “on behalf” a specific market or customer, for series of 100–1000 four-axle vehicles. Development cost is distributed over the actual number of vehicles. For smaller series the sales price therefore will be higher. Typically, 40 vehicles instead of 400 typically increase the per-unit price by 15–20 %, but this is of course dependent on the level of development cost. For early technologies there is also a small “learning” effect, so that production cost declines over time with each doubling of cumulative output. This effect is estimated to be 10–15 % over a time span of 10–15 years, but very often new technologies are more efficient and the older (and more inexpensive) technologies would become obsolete anyhow. These conditions for the rail vehicle market are anticipated to essentially continue in the future. Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 27
Page 1 and 2: Technology Opportunities and Strate
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND
Page 5 and 6: ABSTRACT In Stage 1 of the EU/FP7-f
Page 7 and 8: 1 INTRODUCTION Rail passenger trans
Page 9 and 10: Table 2-1 Reference characteristics
Page 11 and 12: improvements of the rail infrastruc
Page 13 and 14: PD. Space-efficient train According
Page 15 and 16: PJ. Low-GHG electric power Electric
Page 17 and 18: speeds in the range of 220-250 km/h
Page 19 and 20: It should be noted that it is not f
Page 21 and 22: The second issue that may be troubl
Page 23 and 24: 5.2 Energy and GHG characteristics
Page 25 and 26: In most cases it is assumed that th
Page 27 and 28: 2050 2025 2009 reference Low drag 1
Page 29: Table 5-4a Cost characteristics, ag
Page 33 and 34: Summary and comments - Some of the
Page 35 and 36: 5.5 Social acceptability Table 5-6
Page 37 and 38: Comment - Most technologies and mea
Page 39 and 40: PF Eco-driving With an estimated av
Page 41 and 42: Combination of measures The combina
Page 43: REFERENCES Andersson E, Lukaszewicz

WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

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