WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

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5.3 Cost for reducing GHG emissions The costs for reducing GHG emissions are dependent on both the additional cost for vehicle investment and on the change in operating cost (at this stage excluding energy). Estimations are made with cost models developed at and used by KTH. However, it should be noted that it is extremely difficult to make thorough and reliable predictions for the year 2050. In particular, estimates on future sales prices of trains are uncertain. In this study future sales prices are assumed to be the same in real terms as for the reference year 2009, provided that trains are equivalent in performance. Operating costs, other than depreciation and interest cost for trains, are also assumed to be the same as in 2009 in real terms. Only those changes in operating cost (maintenance, track charges, etc) that are motivated by changes in technology or average speed are considered in this study. No considerations are taken to possible effects of a deregulated European rail market, which would make rail freight services more cost-efficient. Energy cost is excluded from operating costs, as energy cost is a variable in Stage 2 of TOSCA. However, to provide a holistic picture, the estimated energy savings are indicated in the right column of Table 5-4 below. Assumptions - Sales price for trains is proportional to suppliers cost for development and manufacture with the same cost structure as in 2009. - Depreciation in 25 years, 6 % interest → equal payment (annuity) of 7.82 % each year. This is practically almost equivalent with 8 % capital cost per year, which is the resulting capital cost by using the following simple estimate used throughout in TOSCA C = I · (r + 1/n), where C = annual capital cost; I = investment; r = average interest rate = 0.04; n = life time = 25 years. The above used interest rates are chosen from a long-term socio-economic perspective and are not including profit margins. - Tonnage-dependent track charges: 0.003 EUR/grosstonne-km, which is an approximate average in Europe, according to (Nash, 2005) - Value of saved train crew time on trains, average per time-tabled hour: 70 EUR (conductors and similar) – 100 EUR (drivers). - No other improvements than the earlier mentioned technologies for improving energy and GHG performance are studied, irrespective of their potential for per-unit cost reductions. Examples of improvement not considered in this context are: higher load factor, reduced maintenance or improved train crew or rolling stock utilization. Comparison with road and air transport To compare with road and air transport, cost characteristics for the rail mode are divided in two tables: - Table 5-4a presents cost characteristics aggregated over intercity, regional and city rail services, for comparison mainly with road transport; - Table 5-4b presents cost characteristics for high-speed rail service, for an approximate comparison also with air transport. Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 24
Table 5-4a Cost characteristics, aggregated and weighted over intercity, regional and city trains (electric and diesel), as estimated for new trains by 2050, compared with reference trains. Note: In this table energy cost is excluded from operating cost, but is indicated as the expected amount of energy consumption per passenger-km (pkm) Sales price (MEUR / train unit) Varia Estimated -tion Operating cost d (EUR / pass-km) Estimated Variation Energy e (MJ /pkm) Most likely Reference electric trains (2009) a 15.1 ±2 0.098 ±0.011 0.368 1. PA Low drag b 15.4 ±2 0.099 b ±0.012 0.334 2. PB Low mass 16.5 ±2.5 0.099 ±0.014 0.343 3. PC Energy recovery 15.1 ±2 0.096 ±0.012 0.313 4. PD Space efficiency 12.7 c ±2 0.089 ±0.012 0.314 5. PF Eco-driving 15.2 ±2 0.097 ±0.011 0.310 6. Pcomb electric + incremental 14.6 c ±2.5 0.088 ±0.015 0.157 7. Pcomb HS (6) + higher speed 16.5 c ±2.8 0.087 ±0.016 0.187 Reference diesel train (2009) a 12 ±1.5 0.127 ±0.014 0.75 9. Pcomb diesel + incremental 12 ±1.5 0.120 ±0.014 0.37 a At the reference year electric trains have a total estimated market share of 88 %, and diesel-hauled trains 12 %. b For high-speed trains it is assumed that a ‘Low-drag’ train will have 3 % less number seats due to longer front and tail. Other types of trains will not be influenced in this respect. c Sales price recalculated for the equivalent number of seats as for the reference of 2009. See note c) of Table 5-2. d Operating costs include capital, maintenance, crew, track & station & dispatch, train formation, sales and administration. Capital cost excludes profit margins. e Energy intake to railway’s electric supply system or to fuel tank. At the reference year 2009, the average cost of electric energy in EU-27 (taken from power grid) is 0.091 EUR /kWh or 0.025 EUR /MJ. For diesel fuel the average cost is 0.015 EUR/MJ. In both cases taxes are excluded. Note that the difference in sales price per train unit, as a result of changes in technology, in most cases is smaller than the normal variation of sales price between different suppliers and depending on the actual market situation. The estimates should therefore be interpreted as average prices. Average prices are assumed to follow cost variations, on the assumption that supplier‘s profit margins will not be changed. Despite the relatively small variations in sales prices of trains with different energy-saving technologies, it is anticipated that even these differences must be justified at train acquisition. Even moderate price differences will be valued in relation to the documented or believed benefits they offer. Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 25
Page 1 and 2: Technology Opportunities and Strate
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND
Page 5 and 6: ABSTRACT In Stage 1 of the EU/FP7-f
Page 7 and 8: 1 INTRODUCTION Rail passenger trans
Page 9 and 10: Table 2-1 Reference characteristics
Page 11 and 12: improvements of the rail infrastruc
Page 13 and 14: PD. Space-efficient train According
Page 15 and 16: PJ. Low-GHG electric power Electric
Page 17 and 18: speeds in the range of 220-250 km/h
Page 19 and 20: It should be noted that it is not f
Page 21 and 22: The second issue that may be troubl
Page 23 and 24: 5.2 Energy and GHG characteristics
Page 25 and 26: In most cases it is assumed that th
Page 27: 2050 2025 2009 reference Low drag 1
Page 31 and 32: Table 5-4b Cost characteristics for
Page 33 and 34: Summary and comments - Some of the
Page 35 and 36: 5.5 Social acceptability Table 5-6
Page 37 and 38: Comment - Most technologies and mea
Page 39 and 40: PF Eco-driving With an estimated av
Page 41 and 42: Combination of measures The combina
Page 43: REFERENCES Andersson E, Lukaszewicz

WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

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