WP3: Rail Passenger Transport - TOSCA Project

Table 5-4b
Cost characteristics for high-speed train services (electric),
as estimated by 2050, compared with reference train (2009).
Note: In this table energy cost is excluded from operating cost, but is indicated as the expected
amount of energy consumption per passenger-km (pkm).
Sales price
(MEUR / train unit)
Estimated
Operating cost d
(EUR / pass-km)
Variation
Estimated
Variation
Energy e
(MJ /pkm)
Most
likely
Reference high-speed train a 28 ±3 0.063 ±0.010 0.243
1. PA Low-drag b 28.5 ±3.5 0.064 b ±0.010 0.203
2. PB Low-mass --- --- --- --- ---
3. PC Energy recovery 28 ±3 0.063 ±0.010 0.236
4. PD Space efficiency 24.5 c ±3 0.058 ±0.010 0.213
5. PF Eco-driving 28.1 ±3 0.062 ±0.010 0.220
6. Pcomb electric + incremental 25 ±3.5 0.058 ±0.011 0.126
7. Pcomb HS: (6) + higher speed 28 ±4 0.057 ±0.011 0.165
a
At the reference year high-speed trains is estimated to have a market share of 20 % on the rail passenger
market; are however anticipated to increase until 2050.
b For high-speed trains it is assumed that a ‘Low-drag’ train will have 3 % less number seats due to longer front
and tail and also 2 % higher price than the reference train.
c Sales price recalculated for the equivalent number of seats. See note c) of Table 5-2.
d Operating costs include capital, maintenance, crew, track & station & dispatch, train formation, sales and
administration. Capital cost excludes profit margins.
e Energy intake to railway’s electric supply system, from public grid.
At the reference year 2009, the average cost of electric energy in EU-27 (taken from power grid) is
0.091 EUR /kWh or 0.025 EUR /MJ, taxes excluded.
Sales price evolution over time
Rail passenger vehicles are usually developed “on behalf” a specific market or customer, for
series of 100–1000 four-axle vehicles. Development cost is distributed over the actual number
of vehicles. For smaller series the sales price therefore will be higher. Typically, 40 vehicles
instead of 400 typically increase the per-unit price by 15–20 %, but this is of course dependent
on the level of development cost. For early technologies there is also a small “learning” effect,
so that production cost declines over time with each doubling of cumulative output. This effect
is estimated to be 10–15 % over a time span of 10–15 years, but very often new technologies
are more efficient and the older (and more inexpensive) technologies would become obsolete
anyhow. These conditions for the rail vehicle market are anticipated to essentially continue in
the future.
Deliverable D4 – WP3 passenger 27