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Estimating Distributions of Counterfactuals with an Application ... - UCL

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EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON COLLEGE CHOICE 419<br />

The probability <strong>of</strong> going to college is given by<br />

for the first case <strong>an</strong>d for the second case<br />

Pr (V > 0)<br />

Pr (V ′ > 0)<br />

The experiment for the case where we remove θ 1 from the information set <strong>of</strong> the<br />

agent, keeping age-by-age me<strong>an</strong> earnings const<strong>an</strong>t, is <strong>an</strong>alogous to the one just<br />

described.<br />

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Programs,” M<strong>an</strong>uscript, University <strong>of</strong> Chicago, 1999.<br />

——, ——, AND ——, “Treatment Effects For Discrete Outcomes when Responses To Treatment<br />

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Economic Success Within <strong>an</strong>d Between Families (Amsterdam: North-Holl<strong>an</strong>d, (1977b).

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