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Along- and Cross-Track Errors - National Hurricane Center

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Forecast Error Distributions <strong>and</strong> Cone Radii<br />

2010<br />

36 0 0<br />

62 -3 -4.8%<br />

85 -6 -7.0%<br />

108 -10 -9.2%<br />

161 -17 -10.6%<br />

220 -20 -9.1%<br />

285 -46 -16.1%<br />

How often is the 120-h<br />

forecast error < 500 n mi?<br />

Substantial reduction in track cone size for 2011 due to 2005 season dropping out of the sample

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