Along- and Cross-Track Errors - National Hurricane Center

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Summary • Atlantic basin track errors increase by 40–50 n mi per day • Forecasts have been steadily getting better over the past two decades (and longer) • NHC uncertainty cone made up of circles that enclose actual storm position about two‐thirds of the time • Error cone will be substantially smaller in 2011, especially at days 4 and 5, due to 2005 season statistics dropping out of the sample • Actual track forecast errors aren’t quite circular about the forecast point • Along‐track (timing) errors tend to be larger than the cross‐track (directional) errors at 48 h and beyond
Page 1 and 2: National Hurricane Center Forecast
Page 3 and 4: NHC Forecast Verification • Syste
Page 5 and 6: 2010 Atlantic Verification VT NT TR
Page 7 and 8: Atlantic Track Error Trends (1990
Page 9 and 10: Atlantic Track Error Distribution (
Page 11 and 12: Forecast Error Distributions and Co
Page 13 and 14: Along‐ and Cross‐Track Errors F
Page 15 and 16: Atlantic 5‐Year Mean Errors Inten
Page 17 and 18: Intensity Error Distribution (48 h)
Page 19: Atlantic Genesis Forecasts Results

Along- and Cross-Track Errors - National Hurricane Center

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