ADWEC 2008 Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 ...

RSB Approved Version- 4 th August 2008
would be Shuweihat S3, with net capacities of about 1500 MW and 100
MIGD, and that S3 would start production in either 2012 or 2013 2
As a result of firm long-term contracted electricity exports to the Northern Emirates
being included in the ADWEC 2008 Statement for the first time, it was concluded that
additional electricity generation capacity may be required in 2011 and 2012 (in
addition to Shuweihat S2 in 2011 and Shuweihat S3 in 2012) in order to satisfy the
Generation Security Standard (GSS). Following consultations between ADWEC and
the Regulation and Supervision Bureau (RSB) 3 , it was agreed that Al Ain station’s
256 MW (gross) of capacity should have its retirement date further extended from
end-2009 until end-2012.
It was also agreed that the 778 MW (gross) of capacity at Umm Al Nar that was
scheduled to be retired before the of end-2010 should also have its retirement date
further extended to end-2012. These agreed extended retirement dates of end-2012
have been fully incorporated into this Statement’s available capacity assumptions.
TRANSCO and ADWEC’s fuel suppliers etc will need to separately confirm that they
can accommodate these lifetime extensions.
ADWEC will make a final decision on whether or not to extend the lifetimes of the
above capacities once work on the ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 demand forecast has
been completed at the end of 2008.
In the case of the 50 MGD of desalination capacity associated with Umm Al Nar’s
778 MW of deferred retirement generation capacity, the RSB requested ADWEC to
provide some separate analysis on the advantages and disadvantage of retaining this
capacity. Since this 50 MGD of capacity is not required in 2011 / 2012 to satisfy the
Desalination Security Standard, ADWEC will submit this analysis separately to the
RSB after work on the ADWEC 2008 Statement has been concluded.
Demand Forecasts
The Emirate of Abu Dhabi’s peak gross electricity demand increased from 2868 MW
in 1998 to 5286 MW in 2007, an increase of 84% or 7% per annum. During the same
period the Emirate of Abu Dhabi’s peak water supply increased from 206.8 MGD in
1998 to about 559 MGD in 2007 an increase of 170% or 12% per annum. For the
projection period 2008 - 2030, ADWEC has prepared High, Base / Most-Likely and
Low demand forecasts. This increase in water supply, however, is not necessarily
representative of the growth in demand due to the network constraints. Al Ain supply,
for example increased from less than 40 MIGD in 1998 to over 170 MIGD in 2007; a
more than 400% increase. This rapid growth reflects improvements in the water
network supplying Al Ain and not the growth in water demand itself.
As with previous ADWEC Statements of Future Capacity Requirements, the Base
Demand Forecast continues to be the most probable forecast. There are still however a
number of unavoidable uncertainties surrounding the latest demand forecast, such as
changes in the Abu Dhabi Government’s development and infrastructure policy, the
2 The National, May 14, 2008.
3 For example, ADWEC’s meeting with the RSB of 3 rd July 2008 and the RSB’s subsequent letter
of 7 th July 2008 to ADWEC.
Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 – 2030 10