ADWEC 2008 Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 ...

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RSB Approved Version- 4 th August 2008 New Sites’ Estimated Potential (Gross) Electricity (MW) Masdar Hydrogen Site Masdar Solar Site Desert Station (D1) Sweihan Desert Station (D2) Madinat Zayed Desert Station (D3) Al Ain Northern Emirates Station Maximum Potential 800 1,000 1,000 600 600 2,500 Utilised Capacity 400 500 0 0 0 0 Unused 400 500 1,000 600 600 2,500 Water (MGD) Masdar Hydrogen Site Masdar Solar Site Desert Station (D1) Sweihan Desert Station (D2) Madinat Zayed Desert Station (D3) Al Ain Northern Emirates Station Maximum Potential 0 0 0 0 0 150 Utilised Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unused 0 0 0 0 0 150 Utilised Capacity = Existing + Under Construction + Committed + Planned. In general, new sites should ideally be located such that different fuels can be delivered there, e.g. gas, crude oil and diesel etc, in order to provide maximum fuel supply flexibility. These new sites would also need to be located some distance from urban and environmentally protected areas, but also relatively close to the main conurbations so that their demands can be easily satisfied. Summary It is clear from the above discussion that finding new coastal site locations post- Shuweihat S3 may prove challenging. ADWEC raised this issue at the 2008 ADWEC Board Meeting with its 100% shareholder, namely ADWEA. ADWEA agreed to take full responsibility for identifying new sites for future capacity expansion, primarily because in addition to the usual economic / technical considerations there are also qualitative public policy considerations. ADWEC has offered to assist ADWEA with its analysis. The issue of potential sites for future capacity expansion was also discussed extensively at the 2008 Generation Expansion Plan Committee meetings. One strong conclusion from the above analysis is that there is an urgent need for new site locations from 2013 onwards, and that ADWEA, as agreed at the ADWEC Board meeting, should immediately take action to identify and develop new sites. Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 – 2030 34
RSB Approved Version- 4 th August 2008 7.1. Technology Choice 7.1.1 Fuel Considerations Traditionally the primary fuel for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi’s electricity and water production has been natural gas. The petrochemicals, electricity and water sectors have historically been the biggest consumers of natural gas in the GCC, however in recent years the upstream oil sector has had a growing demand for oil reservoir reinjection purposes in order to maintain oil production at mature fields. For example, the General Manager of the Abu Dhabi Onshore Oil Company (ADCO), Abdul Munim Al-Khindy, has stated that “The demand for gas in the UAE as a fuel for power stations, water desalination, and other industrial uses is rising faster than can be met by internal supply, partly because gas is used to sustain the oil reserves. In the short term the country will have to look at meeting this demand from other sources. This it has already done through the importation of gas through the Dolphin pipeline and facilities from Qatar, and plans are underway to satisfy longer-term gas demand by developing new reservoirs, and improving the management of existing supplies”. 14 Natural gas demand is forecast to continue to rise rapidly and so the electricity and water sectors must consider alternative fuel mix options for future capacity, such as the crude oil stations used in Saudi Arabia. If natural gas were to remain the main fuel burnt in new capacity, then combined cycle technology is usually considered to be the most cost effective technology choice when operating at relatively high power to water ratios. At lower power to water ratios however, the advantages of combined cycle technology are less pronounced, and so conventional power plants with state of the art technology and supercritical steam cycles may be a viable option for cogeneration plants. Power only stations would be expected to achieve net efficiencies of approximately 52% at Abu Dhabi’s reference site conditions. At the time of system peak demand Abu Dhabi’s reference site conditions are for IWPP projects 46 degrees Celsius ambient temperature, 42% relative humidity and a sea water temperature of 35 degrees Celsius, although the exact values may vary from IWPP. According to an IPA Presentation to the MEED Middle East Power and Water Conference in Abu Dhabi on 17 th -18 th March 2008 15 , a gas supply shortfall is expected in the UAE in 2014 - 2015, even if Dolphin Phase 2 proceeds. See the below chart for further details. 14 See the Shell in the Middle East magazine, issue 42 July 2008. 15 Regional Gas Availability: Issues, Outlook and Options, Douglas Caskie and Robert Bryniak. Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 – 2030 35
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