ADWEC 2008 Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 ...

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RSB Approved Version – 4 th August 2008 transmission and distribution networks. Other factors must be considered when designing these networks, particularly their service lives. It is simply not practical or economical to upgrade the transmission and distribution networks regularly, every five years or so. This is another reason ADWEC prepares very long-term demand forecasts. It is however up to the transmission and distribution companies to decide upon what year of the forecast to target and what additional factors must be considered in their network planning. Northern Emirates ADWEC’s committed water exports to the Northern Emirates are shown below. ADWEC’s Contracted Water Supplies to the Northern Emirates Peak MGD 2008 2009 2010 - 2030 FEWA Contract 10 10 10 FEC Contract 0 0 10 SEWA Contract 5 5 5 Other 5 5 5 Total 20 20 30 Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 – 2030 50
RSB Approved Version – 4 th August 2008 10. Unplanned Capacity Requirements The Fujairah F2 (2010) and Shuweihat S2 (2011) IWPPs, along with the May 14 th 2008 ADWEA announcement that Shuweihat S3 (2012 / 2013) will be the next IWPP, are not expected to fully satisfy the additional capacity requirements for the years 2010 – 2012 inclusive, even if Shuweihat S3 comes in 2012 as is assumed in this Statement. The new FEC / FEWA export contracts will require additional capacity to be procured by ADWEC over and above that shown in the 2007 Statement (the last ADWEC Statement before the unplanned for FEC / FEWA exports were announced). In keeping with ADWEC’s license requirements, the 2007 ADWEC Statement and earlier Statements only considered the Emirate of Abu Dhabi’s capacity requirements,. This section details the unplanned capacity requirements based on the Base / Most Likely Global demand forecast. The Emirate of Abu Dhabi’s unplanned capacity requirements for the High and Low demand forecasts can be found in Annex B. Unplanned Electricity Capacity Requirements The following chart summarises the unplanned electricity capacity requirements under the Base Global Electricity Demand Forecast. See Annex B for further details. Gross MW 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 -3,500 -4,000 -4,500 -5,000 -5,500 -6,000 -6,500 -7,000 -7,500 -8,000 726 Base Global Electricity Demand Forecast Capacity Surplus / Deficit in 2008 - 2020 -47 435 659 -499 -2,424 -3,590 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -4,794 -5,310 -5,783 -6,432 -6,895 -7,626 Surplus / Deficit = Available Capacity - Required Capacity. From above chart it can be seen that under the Base Global Electricity Demand forecast the system will essentially be in balance throughout the short-term planning horizon of 2009-2011 inclusive (including Al Ain and Umm Al Nar lifetime extensions to end-2012). Additional capacity will however be required in 2012 of approximately 500 MW. By 2013 the additional capacity requirements will be around 2400 MW. Statement of Future Capacity Requirements 2008 – 2030 51
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