World of Work Report 2013 - International Labour Organization

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Table 1C.1 Weight of the variables used for the social unrest score Variable Question and answer Weight Confidence in government In this country, do you have confidence in each of thefollowing, or not? How about national government? Answer:NO Living standard Right now, do you feel your standard of living is getting better or getting worse? Answer: WORSE Freedom in your life In this country, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your 0.2 freedom to choose what you do with your life? Answer: DISSATISIFIED Local job market Thinking about the job situation in the city or area where 0.2 you live today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a job? Answer: BAD Access to internet Does your home have access to the Internet? Answer: YES 0.05 0.35 0.2 Table 1C.2 Variables and sources Variable Definition Source Social unrest See box 1.3 and table 1C.1. IILS based on Gallup World Poll data Growth Growth rate of GDP at constant prices in USD World development indicators (WDI) Inflation Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) WDI GDP per capita GDP per capita (constant 2000 USD) WDI Unemployment Youth unemployment Gini coefficient Unemployment rate (%). The unemployment rate indicates the proportion of the labour force that does not have a job and is actively looking and available for work Youth unemployment rate (%) for persons aged15to 24. The Gini coefficient is an inequality indicator based on the Lorenz curve. In particular, a Gini coefficient of 0 represents perfect equality, while a value of 100 implies perfect inequality. Rolling averages of this variable–using a time window of 5 years–were used in this analysis. ILO’s Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) database KILM IILS based on WDI Debt Public debt as a share of GDP IMF, World Economic Outlook Due to strong data limitations regarding the Gini coefficient indicator, the model is estimated using this variable separately (see table 1C.4). Since most countries have information on inequality only for 1 or 2 years between 2006 and 2012, a 5-year rolling average of the Gini coefficient indicator was used (this increases the number of observations). The sources of data are Eurostat, IILS (based on Gallup), ILO KILM, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (table 1C.2). Results Results from the empirical analysis indicate that economic growth and unemployment rate are the two most important determinants of social unrest. For example, a one standard deviation increase in unemployment raises social unrest by 0.39 standard deviations, while a one standard deviation increase in GDP growth reduces social unrest by 0.19 standard deviations (table 1C.3). Meanwhile, youth unemployment, like total unemployment, also increases social unrest 23 1. Overview of employment trends and projections
Table 1C.3 Determinants of social unrest (2006–12) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total unemployment Youth unemployment Total unemployment Youth unemployment Beta coefficients Total unemployment Youth unemployment Inflation (t-1) –0.0024* –0.0024* 0.001 0.002 0.041 0.071 [0.0013] [0.0014] [0.0017] [0.0018] [0.0635] [0.0700] GDP per capita (t-1) –0.0000*** –0.0000*** 0 0 –0.047 –0.4 [0.0000] [0.0000] [0.0000] [0.0000] [0.6917] [0.6896] GDP growth (t-1) –0.0095*** –0.0101*** –0.0047*** –0.0058*** –0.1901*** –0.2338*** [0.0014] [0.0015] [0.0016] [0.0014] [0.0662] [0.0576] Government gross debt (% GDP) (t-1) 0.0006*** 0.0006*** 0.0004# 0.0003** 0.1170# 0.0912** [0.0002] [0.0002] [0.0002] [0.0001] [0.0731] [0.0414] Unemployment (t-1) 0.0027*** 0.0091*** 0.3876*** [0.0009] [0.0023] [0.0969] Youth Unemployment (t-1) 0.0019*** 0.0046*** 0.3909*** [0.0005] [0.0011] [0.0942] Central and South Eastern Europe and CIS –0.003 0.002 [0.0177] [0.0175] East Asia, South East Asia and the Pacific –0.2339*** –0.2111*** [0.0184] [0.0201] Latin America and the Caribbean –0.0756*** –0.0727*** [0.0157] [0.0169] Middle East and North Africa –0.1476*** –0.1393*** [0.0290] [0.0296] South Asia –0.0874*** –0.0749** [0.0249] [0.0295] Sub-Saharan Africa –0.1062*** –0.0992*** [0.0221] [0.0247] Constant 0.4940*** 0.4310*** 0.3119*** 0.3553*** –0.2230*** –0.126 [0.0250] [0.0221] [0.0829] [0.0958] [0.0840] [0.1294] Observations 428 353 428 353 428 353 R-squared 0.482 0.487 0.268 0.357 0.268 0.357 Year FE YES YES YES YES YES YES Region FE YES YES NO NO NO NO Country FE NO NO YES YES YES YES Number of id_country 100 88 100 88 Robust standard errors in brackets. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1, # p < 0.15. 24 (0.39 standard deviations). High public debt (as a share of GDP) is also associated with higher risk of social unrest, although the effect is not as large as unemployment and GDP growth (table 1C.3). The empirical exercise controlled for regions in order to account for the fact that some regions tend to have higher social unrest due to geopolitical issues. Indeed, even when inflation, economic growth, GDP per capita, debt and unemployment are all accounted for, social unrest differs across regions. The advanced economies, which were used in the analysis as a reference region, have on average the highest social unrest index. Within advanced economies, it is Europe that is more likely to face social unrest than North America and other non-EU advanced economies. East Asia, South East Asia and the Pacific are the regions where social unrest is least likely (equations 1 and 2 in table 1C.3). World of Work Report 2013: Repairing the economic and social fabric
Page 1 and 2: PREPRINT EDITION Embargoed until Mo
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Page 60 and 61: A. Minimum wages and jobs: Areview
Page 62 and 63: …without hurting employment. One
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Page 68 and 69: 70 Figure 3.4 Minimum wages as a pe
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Page 82 and 83: AppendixD Methodology to analyse th
Page 84 and 85: References Alaniz, E.; Gindling, T.
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Saraswat, D. 2011. Eff ect of emplo
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● Second, public investment initi
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Table 4.1 Distribution of global in
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…and this is confirmed by analysi
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One possible rationale for holding
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indicators such as product quality,
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5 4 3 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-
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...and efforts are needed to better
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Box 4.2 Streamlining executive comp
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Table 4A.1 Definitions and abbrevia
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Table 4A.3 Regression Results World
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50 40 30 20 10 Note: The chart sh
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Table 4B.1 Current state of financi
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European Social Investment Forum (E
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● The role of the ILO in addressi
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also remains high - at 6.8 per cent
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Box 5.1 Job-centred approach in tim
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0 -0.1 Figure 5.2 Net effect on Eur
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medium-term productivity. Ethiopia,
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● Keeping workers attached to ent
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Inadequate policy coordination tend
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116 —. 2012b. World of Work Repor
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International Labour Review No. 1/2
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The World of Work Report 2013 provi
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