World of Work Report 2013 - International Labour Organization

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Table of Content s 1. Overview of employment trends and projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Main fi ndings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 A. Labour market performance and projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 B. The structural picture: Long-term joblessness, concerns about job quality and social impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 C. Recent trends in social well-being and unrest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 D. Structure of the report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Appendix A. Country groupings by income level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Appendix B. The impact of fi nancial crises on employment: An empirical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Appendix C. Determinants of social unrest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2. Income distribution and middle-income groups across the world 27 Main fi ndings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 A. Trends in income and wage inequalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 B. Middle-income groups in advanced economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 C. Middle-income groups in emerging and developing economies . . . . . . . . . 35 D. Policy challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Appendix A. Country classifications by income level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 vii
3. Role of minimum wages in rebalancing the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Main fi ndings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 A. Minimum wages and jobs: A review of the literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 B. Key design features of minimum wage systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 C. Concluding remarks on the aggregate distributional and employment effects of minimum wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Appendix A. Sources for the data on coverage of minimum wages ......... 61 Appendix B. Detailed information on minimum wage systems in selected developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Appendix C. Distribution of wages around minimum wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Appendix D. Methodology to analyse the impact of minimum wages on employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 4. Investment for a job-friendly recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Main fi ndings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 A. Global patterns and trends in investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 B. Overview of economy-wide and fi rm profitability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 C. Empirical analysis of investment factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 D. Policy considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Appendix A. Empirical analysis of fi rm-level investment behaviour . . . . . . . . 91 Appendix B. Indicators of progress with respect to fi nancial reform . . . . . . . 97 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 5. How to shift to a more equitable and job-friendly economic path . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Main fi ndings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . 102 A. Challenges associated with the current macroeconomic stanc . . . . . . . . . . 102 B. Moving towards a more job-friendly and equitable approach . . . . . . . . . . . 105 C. The political economy of a job-friendly approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Recent publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 viii World of Work Report 2013: Repairing the economic and social fabric
Page 1 and 2: PREPRINT EDITION Embargoed until Mo
Page 4 and 5: World of Work Report 2013 Repairing
Page 6: The International Institute for Lab
Page 11 and 12: Chapter 4 Figure 4.1 Changes in inv
Page 14 and 15: Overview of employment trends and p
Page 16 and 17: A. Labour market performance and pr
Page 18 and 19: panel A). The majority of these cou
Page 20 and 21: ● Countries where the recovery in
Page 22 and 23: Table 1.2 Changes in unemployment,
Page 24 and 25: that policies targeting those group
Page 26 and 27: 4 3 Figure 1.5 Relationship between
Page 28 and 29: Box 1.3 Constructing the social unr
Page 30 and 31: D. Structure of the report The labo
Page 32 and 33: Country Income-level group * Countr
Page 34 and 35: Market) database (ILO, 2011) and re
Page 36 and 37: Table 1C.1 Weight of the variables
Page 38 and 39: T able 1C.4 Determinants of social
Page 40 and 41: Income distribution and middle-inco
Page 42 and 43: …while the opposite trend can be
Page 44 and 45: D9/D5 Figure 2.2 Wage polariz
Page 46 and 47: H Beginning of 1990s 2009 80 70 60
Page 48 and 49: C. Middle-income groups in emerging
Page 50 and 51: Poor (< USD 2) Figure 2.6 Incidenc
Page 52 and 53: Among lower-middle-income countries
Page 54 and 55: Appendix A Country classifi cations
Page 56 and 57: Fosu, A.K. 2009. “Inequality and
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Role of minimum wages in rebalancin
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A. Minimum wages and jobs: Areview
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…without hurting employment. One
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Box 3.1 ILO Minimum Wage Convention
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Mid-2000s Late 2000s In per cent 90
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70 Figure 3.4 Minimum wages as a pe
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Mid-2000s Late 2000s Mid-2000s Late
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20 Figure 3.7 Annual percentage cha
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AppendixA Sources for the data on c
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workers are covered by minimum wage
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grades further divided into sub-cat
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AppendixC Distribution of wages aro
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AppendixD Methodology to analyse th
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References Alaniz, E.; Gindling, T.
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Saraswat, D. 2011. Eff ect of emplo
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● Second, public investment initi
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Table 4.1 Distribution of global in
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…and this is confirmed by analysi
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One possible rationale for holding
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indicators such as product quality,
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5 4 3 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-
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...and efforts are needed to better
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Box 4.2 Streamlining executive comp
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Table 4A.1 Definitions and abbrevia
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Table 4A.3 Regression Results World
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50 40 30 20 10 Note: The chart sh
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Table 4B.1 Current state of financi
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European Social Investment Forum (E
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● The role of the ILO in addressi
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also remains high - at 6.8 per cent
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Box 5.1 Job-centred approach in tim
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0 -0.1 Figure 5.2 Net effect on Eur
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medium-term productivity. Ethiopia,
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● Keeping workers attached to ent
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Inadequate policy coordination tend
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116 —. 2012b. World of Work Repor
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International Labour Review No. 1/2
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The World of Work Report 2013 provi
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World of Work Report 2013 - International Labour Organization

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