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4Assessing Meridional Overturning Circulation Implications Variability: Rapid Climate for Change The ocean plays a critical role in global climate. Thus, incorporating ocean observations and understanding into an integrated, Earth-system-analysis capability is needed to assess the current state of the climate system. Specifically, the Atlantic Ocean MOC, an element of the global-scale ocean circulation responsible for long-term climate variations, has also been identified as a key process related to rapid or even abrupt climate change (i.e., changes over a few years to a few decades) (The Ocean’s Role in Climate). Rapid changes the MOC could have a profound effect on European and global weather patterns and ecosystems in the Atlantic Ocean. Assessing the potential for future abrupt climate changes and developing the capability to predict their occurrence will require a national program that incorporates: (1) ocean observations, including in situ instruments (e.g., currents, temperature, carbon), satellites (e.g., sea surface height, surface vector winds), and ocean data computational and assimilation capabilities to provide routine, basin-scale analyses; (2) now-casting (an assessment of current conditions); (3) model development for decadal forecasting; (4) past climatechange reconstructions; and (5) climate-impact assessments. Ongoing national and international observing efforts and process studies aimed at improving climate and ocean general circulation models provide the foundation upon which to expand the understanding, observation, and prediction of the MOC and its impacts. New research on the MOC will build on the legacy of seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction systems developed since the 1980s based on Pacific and Atlantic tropical ocean variability. Establishing the basis for a long-term monitoring system for the MOC over the next two to five years will provide the observational data needed to challenge and improve climate models, and to more accurately establish the true variability of the MOC and its effects. 58
Pathways of the overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean that represent the large scale conversion of surface waters (red arrows) to deep waters (blue arrows) that have global impacts. The Atlantic overturning circulation has many complex and interacting parts (e.g. rings, interbasin exchanges, etc.), but the most important aspect is the large heat it carries and its apparent sensitivity to the hydrological cycle and climate change. Graphic credit: NOAA 59
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Charting the Course for Ocean Scien
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Charting the cOurse for Ocean Scien
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In This Report Numbered superscript
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Executive summary Proper stewardshi
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Theme 4: The Ocean’s Role in Clim
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Common among the societal themes is
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Introduction The basic necessities
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Critical elements Three critical el
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Expanding the scientific Frontier:
Page 22 and 23: Focusing the Nation’s Ocean Resea
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Page 26 and 27: Fishery survey catches document the
Page 28 and 29: Research Priorities Central to effe
Page 30 and 31: Research Priority 4: Apply advanced
Page 32 and 33: 2Theme 2: increasing Resilience to
Page 34 and 35: Research Priorities Hazard assessme
Page 36 and 37: Necessary Tools Meeting the broad r
Page 38 and 39: Rationale Marine operations compris
Page 40 and 41: Research Priority 9: Apply understa
Page 42 and 43: Necessary Tools Achieving safe, eff
Page 44 and 45: Rationale The ocean covers more tha
Page 46 and 47: Research Priority 12: Understand th
Page 48 and 49: The nation’s coastal ecosystem pr
Page 50 and 51: Research Priorities Effective and a
Page 52 and 53: Necessary Tools These ambitious but
Page 54 and 55: Rationale Waters from the open ocea
Page 56 and 57: Research Priority 18: Understand hu
Page 58 and 59: Necessary Tools A system is needed
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Page 62 and 63: Making a Difference Information To
Page 64 and 65: Incorporation of education goals wi
Page 66 and 67: 1 Forecasting the Response of Coast
Page 68 and 69: 2comparative Analysis of Marine Eco
Page 70 and 71: for Marine Ecosystems 3Sensors Adva
Page 74 and 75: Implementation Strategy Addressing
Page 76 and 77: National Priorities, Scaled Impleme
Page 78 and 79: Educational Institutions Educationa
Page 80 and 81: Within Regions Mechanisms for colla
Page 82 and 83: With Resource Managers Coordination
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Page 86 and 87: Assessment and Evaluation Achieving
Page 88 and 89: Plan Update A successful effort to
Page 90 and 91: • United States Geological Survey
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Page 94 and 95: Assessing Meridional Overturning Ci
Page 96 and 97: Endnotes 1 The term “ocean,” un
Page 98 and 99: Acronyms 84 CCSP...................
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