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Comparative Analysis of Marine Ecosystem
Organization
The objectives of this near-term priority is to improve the management and sustainability
of marine ecosystems by better quantifying ecosystem dynamics in relation to human activities.
This improved quantification will be used in evaluating the effectiveness of MPAs
in achieving management objectives. MPAs incorporate an array of managed marine
ecosystems with differing levels of protection, from areas that allow multiple uses to those
that restrict take and/or access. A better scientific understanding of the function and impacts
of MPAs will assist in making decisions regarding alteration of current MPAs and
potential designation of new U.S. MPAs.
Approach
Three primary research activities will address this near-term priority. First, new modeling
and analysis procedures will be developed to provide the foundation for comparative
analyses and evaluation. This development will also address a key challenge in providing
reliable forecasts of biological phenomena supporting ecosystem-based management: the
paucity of information on mechanisms controlling complex behaviors within ecosystems.
Second, using these quantitative methods, data collected by agencies and academic scientists
will be consistently applied to selected ecosystem types in order to provide improved
understanding of ecosystem response to environmental change. Third, fieldwork, analysis,
and modeling are needed inside and in adjacent areas outside selected MPAs to understand
their impacts and evaluate their success on several scales. Agency contributions
necessary to address this priority include:
• NSF—Improve ways of incorporating uncertainty in model-parameter estimates,
the role of size and age structure in population demographics, and spatial dynamics.
Facilitate application of quantitative frameworks to data sets to synthesize dynamics
across ecosystems, and conduct investigations with theory, design, observations, and
experiments to interpret the ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts of MPAs.
• NOAA—Develop quantitative ecosystem models in partnership with academic and
agency partners, apply appropriate data from multiple in-house monitoring databases,
and interpret results. Analyze the MPA role in relation to conventional fisheries
management tools, in addition to other ecosystem variables.
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)—Expand existing biological
and biogeochemical models to encompass the function of ecosystems under study,
and facilitate incorporation of satellite ocean biological and biogeochemical data into
models to improve spatial ecosystem-function analyses. Examine quantified varia-
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